Coronavirus III

OldTitan wrote:I have a friend (an attorney) who is advising restaurants and taverns to stay open if they want - with indoor seating. He claims the DPH cannot shut them down without due process and a formal hearing. I know of several establishments in this area and the Peoria area that are taking his advice.

I have some sympathy for the owners, but I find it discouraging.

Last night there were over two dozen people dining  in one of the restaurants in town. It is not a very large dining area either.

And their behavior is resulting in the virus being spread. Our positivity test rate is over 14% now and we have dumbasses going out in public without wearing a mask.

12 bar owners in Bloomington ignored the mitigation efforts and have now all been summoned to a meeting of the liquor commission on Friday.  All 12 allowed people to drink indoors and stayed open past 11 p.m.  They now all face fines, suspension or revocation of their liquor licenses, though a reprimand or no punishment is possible.  I can't help but wonder (honestly wonder, it could be zero), how many of these owners were against things like Kaepernick's kneeling or the George Floyd protests where someone was legally protesting something they felt was wrong, or even George Floyd riots, where people were protesting a wrong done by doing something illegal?  Their defiance (the legality of it TBD by lawsuits I would imagine) seems to be at least similar to these.  If they felt those were wrong, why is theirs okay?  Again, this is not me saying that even 1 of them was against any of these protests.  I am definitely making assumptions based on typical left-leaning vs. right-leaning behavior.  Many people are upset with Pritzker for his apparent hypocrisy when it comes to his and his family's life in relation to Covid.  This could be a case of the same type of hypocrisy.  Okay when I do it, not okay when others do it, because I can justify my actions.

That potential hypocrisy is the only reason I bring the topic up, as I dislike to see it in anyone, regardless of race, creed, color, nationality, or political persuasion.

BTW- I feel horrible for small business owners who are struggling at this time.  I have also felt horrible for factory workers laid off when the plant went under, or townspeople when their military base or power plant closed.  Everything comes back to how serious you feel the virus is.  If you think the virus is serious, then this is an unfortunate set of economic circumstances that is unfairly taking some businesses down, but there is nothing else to be done.  If you don't think it is serious, then this is an unfortunate set of economic circumstances that are easily preventable by not giving in to fear over something unlikely to hurt them.  

We could combine so many of these posts or threads into one where everyone says if they think the virus is serious or not, get everyone on the record, and then call it a day on the topic, because no one is changing their minds.

For a bar or restaurant owner you may very well only have two options-

1. Follow the guidelines and go bankrupt and lose your business.

2. Don't follow the guidelines and maybe get away with it. If you get caught you might lose your permits and go out of business.

I can see why they're rolling the dice.

My best friends father has COVID. He has visited 1 person, a friend who lives alone. He now has pneumonia. They had thought to be discharging this morning, then he took a turn last night. He's at our small hospital here in Salem. We don't int abate patients here and he needs to be ASAP. His doctor has called to all available hospitals, including St. Louis. There isn't an ICU bed anywhere. He's at 100% O2 flow right now and they're 'hoping' one comes available in Evansville, IN tomorrow. If so, they'll airlift him there. His Dr. told my friend that he gives him 1-2 days without getting additional treatment. Sometime statistics we read on the internet are misleading apparently.

Huck wrote:

We could combine so many of these posts or threads into one where everyone says if they think the virus is serious or not, get everyone on the record, and then call it a day on the topic, because no one is changing their minds.

You are 100% spot on with this assessment. Some people aren't taking the virus as serious and the people who disagree with them immediately call them out and say they are irresponsible.  Those who are taking the virus more seriously are called out by those who disagree with them and living in fear.  I honestly believe most people, myself included, fall somewhere in the middle.  I do all I can to keep myself, my family, and my students safe (btw, week 15 and still rolling, currently 7 total positives among staff and students in the entire district).  I have had to make some minor adjustments to my lifestyle and major adjustments in my classroom, I may not agree with it but I understand it.  

As for the restaurants, it's their choice and the people's choice to decide to go into those establishments.  In the Kankakee area, most restaurants have done a great job adapting to the situation, followed mitigation efforts in hopes of staying open, and have increased takeout and have additional perks for takeout to encourage people to go for lunch and dinner.  I believe this is a better approach but I can understand that if there are customers to serve, trying to keep your business afloat so that you can still put food on your table.  

The frustrating part of this whole thing and this has been the source of most of my responses, is the information that we get from the government, doctors, etc., seems to be biased, flawed, incorrect, inflated, deflated, censored, and a bunch of other things depending upon your point of view and your source.  All this has led many people to discredit and discount what we are being told by the authorities.  For example, a study from Denmark on mask usage yesterday said that their effectiveness is limited and can actually cause more harm than good.  This goes against other studies that say they are effective.  I can understand that looking at the current surge where mask compliance is really high why people say masks might not be as effective previously thought. All I can attest to is so far, it has worked for me so I will continue the practice of wearing the mask.

I know people who have gotten very sick, people who are asymptomatic, people who were hospitalized, and know of people who have died. The whole thing is a tragedy and more could have been done in certain areas and there is still more that needs to be done in the future. Every illness and every death was not and is not preventable but we can only do so much to limit these things.

dusty7 wrote:a study from Denmark on mask usage yesterday said that their effectiveness is limited and can actually cause more harm than good.  This goes against other studies that say they are effective.

Lead Researcher Behind Controversial Danish Study Says You Should Still Wear A Mask

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2020/11/18/lead-researcher-behind-controversial-danish-study-says-you-should-still-wear-a-mask/?sh=11e70f139e77

180 COVID19 deaths in Illinois today. I think that's a record. I think we might be in for a very bad Winter.

OSUBucks wrote:180 COVID19 deaths in Illinois today. I think that's a record. I think we might be in for a very bad Winter.

I’m hoping the small decrease in positivity the last couple days is the start of a trend, and not just a blip before spiking again. If it’s just a blip, I agree with you.

It was pretty inevitable, but we had an inmate test positive over my weekend (Tues/Wed). Went to work and the entire institution is on quarantine lockdown. Using one housing unit as our possible patient unit. Currently there are 3 others in there with the one positive.

I have renamed this thread "Coronavirus III"

I'm sure you all know we had two previous threads on the same subject that can now be found on page two of the main topic board. Those are named I and II (I know, very imaginative of me). If any of you has an hour to kill, re-reading I is kind of fun. We were all so young and innocent back then.

tm wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:180 COVID19 deaths in Illinois today. I think that's a record. I think we might be in for a very bad Winter.

I’m hoping the small decrease in positivity the last couple days is the start of a trend, and not just a blip before spiking again. If it’s just a blip, I agree with you.

84,831.....10,631
90,612.....11,632
94,205.....12,601
103,569.....8,922
113,447...14,612

The numbers above are from the IDPH website and represent the last five days' worth of tests and corresponding new positive cases in Illinois.

Folks, I'm telling ya, we are focused on the wrong metric.  In the last five days alone, there has been a 34% increase in the number of tests conducted.   Looking/hoping for decreases in the positivity rate when the numbers of tests and cases are skyrocketing is putting spin on numbers and contributes to a false sense of hope or security.  If tests get up to 200,000 a day with confirmed new cases at 20,000 a day, that's a 10% positivity rate, but a 37% increase in the number of new cases over yesterday's number.  No reason to be hopeful.

Don't believe me?  Still want to focus on the positivity rate?  Fine, just don't do it, or don't put much faith in it, during a period of time when the numbers of tests are skyrocketing or fluctuating wildly.  Do it when the denominator is relatively static for a number of consecutive days.  

Want a better metric to track the prevalence and spread of the virus where the denominator never changes?  Try looking at new cases per 100K of population.  The Illinois average new cases for the past 7 days stands at 12,144.  That corresponds to a new cases per 100K of population number of 96.  Adams County leads the way with 312 new cases per 100K of population, followed by Kankakee County at 203 and Cass County at 189.  Cook County is at 88.  Pope County at 24 has the lowest rate of all Illinois counties.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/illinois-coronavirus-cases.html#map

My friends father has improved at our local hospital with a steady course of steriods and Remdisivir. They're hoping to not have to move him after all. I think when he told me that there wasn't an ICU bed anywhere in southern Illinois or in the metro east area and the closest one would 'maybe' come open in a day or two in Evansville, that opened my eyes. There are quite a few hospitals around us that have ICU's. I, like many on this board, try to take all statistics with a grain of salt knowing there are always hidden things in all of them. That first hand experience sealed the deal for me that we weren't getting together with my parents or my wife's parents for Thanksgiving. It's just not worth it.

i would be interested in how a county's proximity to states that have fewer restrictions than illinois (so, all of them that border illinois) have impacted the numbers. the word around here (whiteside co, bordering iowa) is that a high number of cases in our area have been traced to folks spending time in iowa.

That's a good point...we have several people in our town that have created these travel basketball teams and are going to the areas west of St. Louis (St. Charles etc.) playing. Heck, last weekend a mom who had already tested positive went to watch her sons game. Come to find out, the kid has it and tests positive Monday. The coach, who's a complete travel sports coach jackwagon dad, had to be told by the county health department that he couldn't take the kids back to St. Charles this weekend to play. That's the world we live in right now...those who are selfish and are saying 'screw this, I'm doing what I want' and those that are honestly trying to do the best they can to be part of the solution.

ging wrote:i would be interested in how a county's proximity to states that have fewer restrictions than illinois (so, all of them that border illinois) have impacted the numbers.  the word around here (whiteside co, bordering iowa) is that a high number of cases in our area have been traced to folks spending time in iowa.

I see where the casinos in Dubuque are still open. But hey, as of a few days ago, Iowa began to require that you wear masks when you go inside them.

ramblinman wrote:

ging wrote:i would be interested in how a county's proximity to states that have fewer restrictions than illinois (so, all of them that border illinois) have impacted the numbers.  the word around here (whiteside co, bordering iowa) is that a high number of cases in our area have been traced to folks spending time in iowa.

I see where the casinos in Dubuque are still open.  But hey, as of a few days ago, Iowa began to require that you wear masks when you go inside them.  

and high school sports continue in iowa.

lefty120 wrote:The coach, who's a complete travel sports coach jackwagon dad 

how can you tell?

ging wrote:

ramblinman wrote:

ging wrote:i would be interested in how a county's proximity to states that have fewer restrictions than illinois (so, all of them that border illinois) have impacted the numbers.  the word around here (whiteside co, bordering iowa) is that a high number of cases in our area have been traced to folks spending time in iowa.

I see where the casinos in Dubuque are still open.  But hey, as of a few days ago, Iowa began to require that you wear masks when you go inside them.  

and high school sports continue in iowa.

As they should. Contact tracing shows that very little contact with the virus happens in the school setting. Although, our school board has made the decision that our winter sports are delayed until at least December 1st and many schools are in a similar situation as many are now virtual in Iowa.

ramblinman wrote:

tm wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:180 COVID19 deaths in Illinois today. I think that's a record. I think we might be in for a very bad Winter.

I’m hoping the small decrease in positivity the last couple days is the start of a trend, and not just a blip before spiking again. If it’s just a blip, I agree with you.

84,831.....10,631
90,612.....11,632
94,205.....12,601
103,569.....8,922
113,447...14,612

The numbers above are from the IDPH website and represent the last five days' worth of tests and corresponding new positive cases in Illinois.

Folks, I'm telling ya, we are focused on the wrong metric.  In the last five days alone, there has been a 34% increase in the number of tests conducted.   Looking/hoping for decreases in the positivity rate when the numbers of tests and cases are skyrocketing is putting spin on numbers and contributes to a false sense of hope or security.  If tests get up to 200,000 a day with confirmed new cases at 20,000 a day, that's a 10% positivity rate, but a 37% increase in the number of new cases over yesterday's number.  No reason to be hopeful.

Don't believe me?  Still want to focus on the positivity rate?  Fine, just don't do it, or don't put much faith in it, during a period of time when the numbers of tests are skyrocketing or fluctuating wildly.  Do it when the denominator is relatively static for a number of consecutive days.  

Want a better metric to track the prevalence and spread of the virus where the denominator never changes?  Try looking at new cases per 100K of population.  The Illinois average new cases for the past 7 days stands at 12,144.  That corresponds to a new cases per 100K of population number of 96.  Adams County leads the way with 312 new cases per 100K of population, followed by Kankakee County at 203 and Cass County at 189.  Cook County is at 88.  Pope County at 24 has the lowest rate of all Illinois counties.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/illinois-coronavirus-cases.html#map

according to our last census, 1 out of every 10 people who live in virginia, il, has tested positive to covid-19.

Another metric change for the state of Illinois. Not saying it is a bad move as the explanation makes sense but should be more widely reported to keep citizens informed.

https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/illinois-removes-thousands-of-available-hospital-beds-from-state-covid-19-database/article_f6990100-2b83-11eb-b417-d33ca560f4e6.html

My in-laws in IL are scared shitless about ChinaVirus...

... but still refuse to wear their seatbelts

dusty7 wrote:Another metric change for the state of Illinois. Not saying it is a bad move as the explanation makes sense but should be more widely reported to keep citizens informed.  

https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/illinois-removes-thousands-of-available-hospital-beds-from-state-covid-19-database/article_f6990100-2b83-11eb-b417-d33ca560f4e6.html

Nice find coach...and a really great example how things are getting done with very little transparency.  It makes sense to remove those, but to many, the state is removing them to add fear to the public...when in reality they just aren't communicating their reasoning.  A reporter should not have to ask that question.  It should be explained up front.  Dr. Scott Gottlieb was on Face the Nation yesterday and made a similar point.  Simply put, just because there are beds and ICU beds available, that doesn't mean there is enough staff to handle them.  The medical community has been hit hard these last 6 months and staff in many areas are stretched thin.
He said this is what's going to stress the system the most over the coming 2-3 months.

lefty120 wrote:

dusty7 wrote:Another metric change for the state of Illinois. Not saying it is a bad move as the explanation makes sense but should be more widely reported to keep citizens informed.  

https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/illinois-removes-thousands-of-available-hospital-beds-from-state-covid-19-database/article_f6990100-2b83-11eb-b417-d33ca560f4e6.html

Nice find coach...and a really great example how things are getting done with very little transparency.  It makes sense to remove those, but to many, the state is removing them to add fear to the public...when in reality they just aren't communicating their reasoning.  A reporter should not have to ask that question.  It should be explained up front.  Dr. Scott Gottlieb was on Face the Nation yesterday and made a similar point.  Simply put, just because there are beds and ICU beds available, that doesn't mean there is enough staff to handle them.  The medical community has been hit hard these last 6 months and staff in many areas are stretched thin.
He said this is what's going to stress the system the most over the coming 2-3 months.

I've heard much of the same and a good friend of mine who is an ICU nurse says that it comes in waves. For example, two weeks ago it was steady, then they were hit hard for about 5 days, then steady for a few more days, then get hit hard again for a few days. She said the biggest issue has been staffing due to quarantine. Many are coming in for being short of breath due to low O2 numbers and are discharged anywhere from a few hours to a few days. She said she has seen people who have no reason to come to the hospital show up at the ER for treatment and others who have waited way too long. She has told my wife and I that it can be exhausting and puts stress on the system but it is not as bad as it was in 2017 and 2018.

More news on the vaccine front.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/covid-vaccine-cdc-should-warn-people-the-side-effects-from-shots-wont-be-walk-in-the-park-.html+

Will employers provide paid sick days for people to get the vaccine? Many of those who live in low-income neighborhoods where COVID has a higher rate of spread cannot afford to take days off work if they are experiencing the side effects. Most of us here have the privilege of having paid sick leave or are retired but many of those who need the vaccine do not have that privilege. I wonder if this will deter them from going and getting the vaccine?

Also, may have found people who have even more disregard for restrictions than JB - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hawaii-conference-backlash-coronavirus-restrictions-california

dusty7 wrote:

lefty120 wrote:

dusty7 wrote:Another metric change for the state of Illinois. Not saying it is a bad move as the explanation makes sense but should be more widely reported to keep citizens informed.  

https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/illinois-removes-thousands-of-available-hospital-beds-from-state-covid-19-database/article_f6990100-2b83-11eb-b417-d33ca560f4e6.html

Nice find coach...and a really great example how things are getting done with very little transparency.  It makes sense to remove those, but to many, the state is removing them to add fear to the public...when in reality they just aren't communicating their reasoning.  A reporter should not have to ask that question.  It should be explained up front.  Dr. Scott Gottlieb was on Face the Nation yesterday and made a similar point.  Simply put, just because there are beds and ICU beds available, that doesn't mean there is enough staff to handle them.  The medical community has been hit hard these last 6 months and staff in many areas are stretched thin.
He said this is what's going to stress the system the most over the coming 2-3 months.

I've heard much of the same and a good friend of mine who is an ICU nurse says that it comes in waves.  For example, two weeks ago it was steady, then they were hit hard for about 5 days, then steady for a few more days, then get hit hard again for a few days. She said the biggest issue has been staffing due to quarantine. Many are coming in for being short of breath due to low O2 numbers and are discharged anywhere from a few hours to a few days.  She said she has seen people who have no reason to come to the hospital show up at the ER for treatment and others who have waited way too long. She has told my wife and I that it can be exhausting and puts stress on the system but it is not as bad as it was in 2017 and 2018.

I'm curious what you mean "not as bad as it was in 2017 and 2018". Was she referring to the flu season in those years?

my kid sent me something yesterday.
The flu spread is very low this year because people are wearing masks and social distancing but covid is spreading because people are not wearing masks and not social distancing...