Coronavirus II

Kankakee county has had 1,438 confirmed cases, 325 active cases, 4 currently hospitalized, and 1050 recoveries.

63 deaths with 100% having previous medical history
40% under care of hospice
67% in long-term care facilities
Average age is 81 years old.
Youngest death 48 (in long-term care, multiple underlying health conditions)
Oldest 97.
81% Caucasian
10% African American
6% Hispanic
2% Asian Indian
4 deaths were from outside Kankakee county.

Source: Kankakee County Coroners Facebook

Woke up this morning to a text saying we've got our first case at the prison. Employee who really doesn't interact with anyone.

More details to follow. If there are any, I've been off since Wed morning.

dusty7 wrote:Kankakee county has had 1,438 confirmed cases, 325 active cases, 4 currently hospitalized, and 1050 recoveries.  

63 deaths with 100% having previous medical history
40% under care of hospice
67% in long-term care facilities
Average age is 81 years old.  
Youngest death 48 (in long-term care, multiple underlying health conditions)
Oldest 97.  
81% Caucasian
10% African American
6% Hispanic
2% Asian Indian
4 deaths were from outside Kankakee county.  

Source: Kankakee County Coroners Facebook

Death rate of 5.6% of those confirmed cases with outcomes of either cured or deaths.

Source: ramblinman's calculator

ramblinman wrote:

dusty7 wrote:Kankakee county has had 1,438 confirmed cases, 325 active cases, 4 currently hospitalized, and 1050 recoveries.  

63 deaths with 100% having previous medical history
40% under care of hospice
67% in long-term care facilities
Average age is 81 years old.  
Youngest death 48 (in long-term care, multiple underlying health conditions)
Oldest 97.  
81% Caucasian
10% African American
6% Hispanic
2% Asian Indian
4 deaths were from outside Kankakee county.  

Source: Kankakee County Coroners Facebook

Death rate of 5.6% of those confirmed cases with outcomes of either cured or deaths.

Source:  ramblinman's calculator

And for every confirmed case there are probably at least a dozen infected people who have never been tested.

OSUBucks wrote:

ramblinman wrote:

dusty7 wrote:Kankakee county has had 1,438 confirmed cases, 325 active cases, 4 currently hospitalized, and 1050 recoveries.  

63 deaths with 100% having previous medical history
40% under care of hospice
67% in long-term care facilities
Average age is 81 years old.  
Youngest death 48 (in long-term care, multiple underlying health conditions)
Oldest 97.  
81% Caucasian
10% African American
6% Hispanic
2% Asian Indian
4 deaths were from outside Kankakee county.  

Source: Kankakee County Coroners Facebook

Death rate of 5.6% of those confirmed cases with outcomes of either cured or deaths.

Source:  ramblinman's calculator

And for every confirmed case there are probably at least a dozen infected people who have never been tested.

In the end, I'm going to have as high a % of dying driving to work (1%) as I do dying from COVID.

Kinda like I said in March.

For today we have 1317 new cases and 32,987 tests. For the period 7/3-7/9 positivity rate is 2.9%. For just today positivity rate of 4.0%. We are two weeks out from Phase 4 and while we are doing better than a lot of states we are definitely going up in infections.

954 new cases and 38,894 tests for Sunday. Positivity rate for 7/5-7/11 was 3.0% Florida has 15,300 new cases today, the worst I've seen for any state. The worst day Illinois had had was around 4000 a couple months ago.

Saw this posted on another board

Just some Data from Illinois today, not age based, just total number about hospitals from IDPH

Statewide
35065 beds available
14145 beds open not being used
19578 beds NON Covid-19 patients
1342 beds Covid-19 patients

6.41% of hospital patients Covid-19 positive
93.59% of hospital patients negative
Covid-19 patients are occupying
3.83% of all the beds in Illinois

I don't know what my point is but the numbers are not adding up in my head, it seems that the curve has been flattened by quite a bit. That's what I thought we were trying to do. So I don't know what we are trying to do now, because I am not convinced that a vaccine (if it was that easy we would have on for the common cold - a coronavirus) is coming or enough people will be willing to take it to have any effect.

If there is no vaccine what levels do we need to be at so that the willing majority are allowed to play football or any sport for that matter or is it all just over?

dusty7 wrote:So I don't know what we are trying to do now

Win an election.

I'll put this here, but it could also go in the political threads.

Again, why don't people trust the media?
https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/10/nbc-contributor-reveals-he-never-tested-positive-for-covid-after-network-followed-his-alleged-recovery/

We saw an increase here in Illinois last week but I'm hopeful that it's a mild increase and not long in duration. The SEC will wait until late this month before they make an announcement about football. Right now the Pandemic is a lot worse in SEC country than Big 10 country but the Big 10 has already canceled their early season non conference games. Who knows, we might be in good shape in another 2 weeks.

OSUBucks wrote:but the Big 10 has already canceled their early season non conference games.

Which is incredibly stupid. Playing ISU is obviously 1000% more dangerous than traveling to Maryland or Nebraska. Duh.

We're just flinging crap against the wall to see if it sticks.

Head Idiot wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:but the Big 10 has already canceled their early season non conference games.

Which is incredibly stupid. Playing ISU is obviously 1000% more dangerous than traveling to Maryland or Nebraska. Duh.

We're just flinging crap against the wall to see if it sticks.

Agree that they jumped the gun on that decision. There are people out there who say that they are scared about sending their kids to school. That is more than a month away. I think we should do what's in the best interest of the kids. How many people 18 or under has COVID19 killed in Illinois? I know that 85% of the deaths are 60 years or older. Unless there's a raging Pandemic that's killing kids it's in their best interest to be in class.

I believe that there have been 4 deaths under the age of 18 I'm the state of Illinois. One was a newborn with several other issues, and all others had significant underlying health conditions.

OSUBucks wrote:

Head Idiot wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:but the Big 10 has already canceled their early season non conference games.

Which is incredibly stupid. Playing ISU is obviously 1000% more dangerous than traveling to Maryland or Nebraska. Duh.

We're just flinging crap against the wall to see if it sticks.

Agree that they jumped the gun on that decision. There are people out there who say that they are scared about sending their kids to school. That is more than a month away. I think we should do what's in the best interest of the kids.  How many people 18 or under has COVID19 killed in Illinois? I know that 85% of the deaths are 60 years or older. Unless there's a raging Pandemic that's killing kids it's in their best interest to be in class.

But, but, but their grandparents and their parents! And some teachers are old!!

Head Idiot wrote:In the end, I'm going to have as high a % of dying driving to work (1%) as I do dying from COVID.

Hold on a minute

1% of people die driving home from work? That seems unlikely to me.

Were you joking or do you have a source for that statistic?

Teetime wrote:

Head Idiot wrote:In the end, I'm going to have as high a % of dying driving to work (1%) as I do dying from COVID.

Hold on a minute

1% of people die driving home from work? That seems unlikely to me.

Were you joking or do you have a source for that statistic?

Odds of dying in a car crash are 1 in 103. Most car crashes happen within 5 miles of home. I work less than 5 miles from home. My odds are probably higher than 1%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/opioids-car-crash-guns.html

dusty7 wrote:If there is no vaccine what levels do we need to be at so that the willing majority are allowed to play football or any sport for that matter or is it all just over?

Who is this majority you are talking about?  How do you know they are a majority?  Many of the public opinion polls I am seeing are saying that the majority of people think that we are reopening too fast.  The graphic below cuts out, but it basically says that 59% of Americans think that the country is reopening too fast.  This poll was taken July 10:



According to a recent Gallup poll https://news.gallup.com/poll/313415/assessment-covid-situation-increasingly-bleak.aspx, 72% of Americans feel we should stay at home as much as possible to avoid contracting or spreading the virus.  That's up from 66% just a few weeks earlier.  The same poll says that 28% of Americans feel we should lead normal lives as much as possible.  That's down from 34% a few weeks earlier.

ramblinman wrote:

dusty7 wrote:If there is no vaccine what levels do we need to be at so that the willing majority are allowed to play football or any sport for that matter or is it all just over?

Who is this majority you are talking about?  How do you know they are a majority?  Many of the public opinion polls I am seeing are saying that the majority of people think that we are reopening too fast.  The graphic below cuts out, but it basically says that 59% of Americans think that the country is reopening too fast.  This poll was taken July 10:



According to a recent Gallup poll https://news.gallup.com/poll/313415/assessment-covid-situation-increasingly-bleak.aspx, 72% of Americans feel we should stay at home as much as possible to avoid contracting or spreading the virus.  That's up from 66% just a few weeks earlier.  The same poll says that 28% of Americans feel we should lead normal lives as much as possible.  That's down from 34% a few weeks earlier.

Here's a poll for you, SurveyUSA poll: 1 in 5 California parents say school campuses should not open at all this year. 1/5 is 20%, California made the decision to close schools for the fall due to an increase in COVID numbers. Since when is 20% a majority?

Polls do not mean a damn thing. There is enough data on Americans that the people who conduct these polls have the ability to concentrate their polling questions to a specific population of people, or word the questions in a way to exhibit specific answers out of people. Need proof, see the 2016 Presidential Polls.

A Quote taken from the Gallup Wikipedia Page - Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result. ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup_(company)#:~:text=Poll%20analyst%20Nate%20Silver%20found,away%20from%20the%20final%20result.&text=In%202013%2C%20the%20accuracy%20of,on%20religious%20faith%20was%20questioned.

I don't know what my risks are. I really don't think most of us do.

I do trust medical professionals over politicians by a lot.

I have watched with amusement as local districts have rolled out their respective back-to-school plans and the firestorms that follow.

Our district makes their decision next Monday. Should be a madhouse. 70%+ of our teachers do not want to go back to full time school as usual. I would estimate at least that percentage of our parents do want to go back full time. We have a dysfunctional board and I fully expect a 4-3 decision.

Honestly, full time school worries me a bit, but it would be a heck of a lot less work for me.

OldTitan wrote:I don't know what my risks are. I really don't think most of us do.

I do trust medical professionals over politicians by a lot.

I have watched with amusement as local districts have rolled out their respective back-to-school plans and the firestorms that follow.

Our district makes their decision next Monday. Should be a madhouse. 70%+ of our teachers do not want to go back to full time school as usual. I would estimate at least that percentage of our parents do want to go back full time. We have a dysfunctional board and I fully expect a 4-3 decision.

Honestly, full time school worries me a bit, but it would be a heck of a lot less work for me.

I agree with this. I would imagine that many teachers agree with what you said, as well.

Our admin and BOE did the best they could, given the circumstances. I'm just going to wear my mask and faceshield from the time I get to work until I walk out the door and wash my hands about 30x a day!

On our parent survey, we had 68% respond they want full time school with the necessary precautions so we are going full day full schedule. The decision by the board was unanimous. Our approach is to see what happens and be prepared for potential changes.

Our plan of we see a increase in cases is 50% alternating days. We only had 30% of parents speak positively about that plan. We are a working class community and our parents need to work and value our school.

As teachers, about 70% approved of 5 day and 60% approved alternate day.

As for myself, I am ready for being back in the building but I will take the necessary precautions and be even more diligent once baby#2 arrives in Sept. I will do what I need to do to protect and provide for my family and I don't need some bureaucrat with little to no interest in our children telling me how to do that.

About 1% of the population had been infected (that we know of, potentially a lot higher) and of that 1%, 95% have recovered. I believe in Illinois we have helped stop the spread and what we see with fluctuating numbers between 700 and 1200 with 0 - 60 deaths a day is the new normal that we will be living with for many years.

dusty7 wrote:

ramblinman wrote:

dusty7 wrote:If there is no vaccine what levels do we need to be at so that the willing majority are allowed to play football or any sport for that matter or is it all just over?

Who is this majority you are talking about?  How do you know they are a majority?  Many of the public opinion polls I am seeing are saying that the majority of people think that we are reopening too fast.  The graphic below cuts out, but it basically says that 59% of Americans think that the country is reopening too fast.  This poll was taken July 10:



According to a recent Gallup poll https://news.gallup.com/poll/313415/assessment-covid-situation-increasingly-bleak.aspx, 72% of Americans feel we should stay at home as much as possible to avoid contracting or spreading the virus.  That's up from 66% just a few weeks earlier.  The same poll says that 28% of Americans feel we should lead normal lives as much as possible.  That's down from 34% a few weeks earlier.

Here's a poll for you, SurveyUSA poll: 1 in 5 California parents say school campuses should not open at all this year.  1/5 is 20%, California made the decision to close schools for the fall due to an increase in COVID numbers.  Since when is 20% a majority?

Polls do not mean a damn thing.  There is enough data on Americans that the people who conduct these polls have the ability to concentrate their polling questions to a specific population of people, or word the questions in a way to exhibit specific answers out of people.  Need proof, see the 2016 Presidential Polls.

A Quote taken from the Gallup Wikipedia Page - Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result. ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup_(company)#:~:text=Poll%20analyst%20Nate%20Silver%20found,away%20from%20the%20final%20result.&text=In%202013%2C%20the%20accuracy%20of,on%20religious%20faith%20was%20questioned.

First and foremost, you are wrong about California making the decision to close schools for the fall due to the pandemic.  Couldn't be more wrong if you tried.  California has NOT made that decision.  A number of California school DISTRICTS have made the choice to open the school year with distance learning.  That is different from the state closing schools altogether (which was the option chosen by 21% of the people in the poll you cited).  

Seriously, where do you come up with this stuff?  Do you just make assumptions?  Do you think you read something but what you comprehend is not what is on paper or on the screen?  Or do you just make stuff up as you go along to bolster your arguments?  

By the way, the Orange County Education Board voted yesterday to approve school reopening recommendations that do not require masks for students or social distancing in Orange County schools.  So, it is clear that the state of California is all over the place relative to opening with kids in classrooms, distance learning, or some hybrid thereof, but no statewide decision has been made.

Here is the specific question and its results from the poll you cited:

"6. In the fall, should California public schools for students in Kindergarten through 12th grade? Not open at all? Open for remote learning only, with all classes conducted online? Open for a "hybrid" school model, where on any given day some students are taking classes online and others are in the school building for in-person learning? Or open for in-person learning only, with all classes conducted in classrooms?

21% Not Open At All
25% Open For Remote Learning Only
34% Open For a "hybrid" School Model
10% Open For In-person Learning Only
10% Not Sure"

SO, according to the poll you cited, only 10% of Californians polled want their schools open for in-person learning only.  46% of them (the majority of respondents with answers other than "Not Sure") either want schools not open at all or open for distance learning only.  

Secondly, you slam one of the oldest and most well respected polling organizations in the country, you go on to make the claim that "polls do not mean a damn thing," and then you cite a poll from Survey USA to try to bolster some beef you have about government not heeding the will of the people!  And you tie all that to an erroneous claim that California has made the decision to close schools!      Also, your Nate Silver quote relative to the overall accuracy of Gallup polls was actually specific to the 2012 presidential election.  You took the quote out of context and twisted it to look like he is claiming all of Gallup's polls are suspect. Nice try, but you got caught.

Again, I ask you:  Who is this "willing majority" you referenced earlier?  How do you know they are a majority?

OldTitan wrote:70%+ of our teachers do not want to go back to full time school as usual.

What % of those teachers would be in favor of never going back though?

Our District has let all teachers know if they do not feel comfortable being in school they are free to take a leave of absence. School districts should be offering this for teachers who are concerned and are worried about their health. However, if you do not go to work, you don’t get paid, that is how a job works, and when you feel comfortable, you can return to work and that job will still be there. Many districts in our area who are doing remote learning or hybrid, are still requiring that teachers to be in the building during contract hours.