Re: Coronavirus II

by dusty7 Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:19 pm

lefty120 wrote:Seems several states are seeing increased numbers since they’ve been reopening over the last several weeks. Several universities that have had their student athletes returning to campus are also reporting cases. This is not good. I unfortunately still feel fall football at the high school level in Illinois is 50/50 at best. In person school in the fall isn’t much better.

So there is an increase in cases but how many of these cases have been hospitalized? We knew there would be an increase but the hospitalization rate has dropped drastically over the span of 2 weeks and is continuing to drop. A positive test is not the end of the world for most of the population and I am still curious as to why we have the perception if we have a positive test we should start planning our funerals. We have an understanding of who this virus is fatal for and we have shown our health care system can handle an increase, remember, hospital staff are being laid off as we speak.

As for school, not going to school is going to be devastating for these students and for education as a whole. Worldwide, the effect on children has been minimal, and we are doing a major disservice to these children by taking the stability out of their lives. Most, over 95% of the people with this virus survive, and those who die often only have a short time left, is all of the shutdown, and negative impact on students of all ages, worth the benefit?

I saw this on another board, the post makes a great point.

IDK why don't you ask all the Grandparents and Great Grandparents?

Do you want all your Grandchildren / Great Grandchildren and/or children to give up Huge hunks of the best part of their lives to increase your chances of survival over the next few years from 70% to 71.5% (granted those are made up percentages)?

I think it would be pretty selfish for very many of them to answer Yes that's what I want. Yes and I want them to start closing everything down again for every cold & flu season also, as that may have adverse effects on my survival also.

Let's just eliminate all risks and risky behavior. Won't life be wonderful then?

The disease is not going away, it will be around just like the cold and flu. We are going to have to learn to live with it instead of living in fear.

by lefty120 Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:39 pm

I need to hear that kind of stuff. I’m in a bad mindset right now about the fall...a lot of doomsday era out there it seems.

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:49 pm

dusty7 wrote:As for school, not going to school is going to be devastating for these students and for education as a whole. Worldwide, the effect on children has been minimal, and we are doing a major disservice to these children by taking the stability out of their lives. Most, over 95% of the people with this virus survive, and those who die often only have a short time left, is all of the shutdown, and negative impact on students of all ages, worth the benefit?

Keep in mind that school children don't teach themselves. There are dozens, and sometimes even hundreds, of adults working in schools. Some of those adults are older. Some are living with chronic illnesses like asthma, COPD, etc. Do you just say "sucks to be you" to those adults who have dedicated decades to educating children? Do you tell them to quit if they don't like the risks?

dusty7 wrote:IDK why don't you ask all the Grandparents and Great Grandparents?

Do you want all your Grandchildren / Great Grandchildren and/or children to give up Huge hunks of the best part of their lives to increase your chances of survival over the next few years from 70% to 71.5% (granted those are made up percentages)?

I think it would be pretty selfish for very many of them to answer Yes that's what I want. Yes and I want them to start closing everything down again for every cold & flu season also, as that may have adverse effects on my survival also.

Let's just eliminate all risks and risky behavior. Won't life be wonderful then?

The disease is not going away, it will be around just like the cold and flu. We are going to have to learn to live with it instead of living in fear.

Why not ask the grandchildren and great grandchildren how they would feel if they thought they might be the reason why their grandparent or great grandparent got sick and died from COVID?

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:20 pm

AAAAAAAAAAAAAND.....

We're back!

by OSUBucks Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:03 pm

Head Idiot wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAAAND.....

We're back!

I don't understand the doom and gloom. Illinois is one of 24 states that has been trending downward. Unless we get a surge from all the protesting I think it will stay that way. There hasn't been as much protesting here as up North so I'm hopeful that we won't see that spike here. We should see a spike by next week if we're going to have one. Pritzker said yesterday that the plan is still to go to phase 4 on the 26th. He also said that social distancing and wearing masks should still be followed in phase 4 when out in public.
The media in general is still putting a negative spin on everything.

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:33 pm

OSUBucks wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAAAND.....

We're back!

I don't understand the doom and gloom. Illinois is one of 24 states that has been trending downward. Unless we get a surge from all the protesting I think it will stay that way. There hasn't been as much protesting here as up North so I'm hopeful that we won't see that spike here. We should see a spike by next week if we're going to have one. Pritzker said yesterday that the plan is still to go to phase 4 on the 26th. He also said that social distancing and wearing masks should still be followed in phase 4 when out in public.
The media in general is still putting a negative spin on everything.

On what basis do you think that the trend will continue downward in Illinois? Is that a gut feeling or perhaps you are using logic? Or do you have some scientific basis for your conclusion?

If you look at the spread of the virus, it is clear that there are hot spots that flare up and then die down. Some places are experiencing a second wave already. In Singapore and South Korea, they got a good handle on it at first, and they were being touted as countries that did a good job of mitigating the spread. Recently,however, they are seeing second surges.

Right now, Arizona is freaking out because 76% of their ICU beds are currently in use, hospitalizations are on the rise, and are the numbers of new cases. Arizona was one of the first states to relax restrictions.

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:43 pm

ramblinman wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:AAAAAAAAAAAAAND.....

We're back!

I don't understand the doom and gloom. Illinois is one of 24 states that has been trending downward. Unless we get a surge from all the protesting I think it will stay that way. There hasn't been as much protesting here as up North so I'm hopeful that we won't see that spike here. We should see a spike by next week if we're going to have one. Pritzker said yesterday that the plan is still to go to phase 4 on the 26th. He also said that social distancing and wearing masks should still be followed in phase 4 when out in public.
The media in general is still putting a negative spin on everything.

On what basis do you think that the trend will continue downward in Illinois? Is that a gut feeling or perhaps you are using logic? Or do you have some scientific basis for your conclusion?

If you look at the spread of the virus, it is clear that there are hot spots that flare up and then die down. Some places are experiencing a second wave already. In Singapore and South Korea, they got a good handle on it at first, and they were being touted as countries that did a good job of mitigating the spread. Recently,however, they are seeing second surges.

Right now, Arizona is freaking out because 76% of their ICU beds are currently in use, hospitalizations are on the rise, and are the numbers of new cases. Arizona was one of the first states to relax restrictions.

What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

by OSUBucks Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:57 pm

Arizona is finally getting hit pretty hard with COVID19. We hit our peak several weeks ago and Arizona is probably just nearing theirs. If you recall, NY state peaked weeks before we did. It is different depending on where you live. Arizona has about 7.3 million people and as of today 1095 COVID19 deaths. Illinois has 12.7 million people and 6095 COVID19 deaths.
BTW Illinois had 625 new cases today. We continue to trend in the right direction. Let's hope it stays that way.

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:58 pm

Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.

by 19delta Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:11 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.

You should hire those gangbangers from the 15th Ward to protect you with their automatic weapons.

by dusty7 Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:30 pm

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:As for school, not going to school is going to be devastating for these students and for education as a whole. Worldwide, the effect on children has been minimal, and we are doing a major disservice to these children by taking the stability out of their lives. Most, over 95% of the people with this virus survive, and those who die often only have a short time left, is all of the shutdown, and negative impact on students of all ages, worth the benefit?

Keep in mind that school children don't teach themselves. There are dozens, and sometimes even hundreds, of adults working in schools. Some of those adults are older. Some are living with chronic illnesses like asthma, COPD, etc. Do you just say "sucks to be you" to those adults who have dedicated decades to educating children? Do you tell them to quit if they don't like the risks?

Where is the proof that these teachers will get the disease from these students? The WHO stated that asymptomatic spread was unlikely, quickly found out that did fit the narrative and came up with an estimate that 40% of cases are from the asymptomatic spread. If find it funny one day it doesn't happen and then all of a sudden the next day it does. It does not make sense to me.

If a teacher has one of these conditions, they could be reassigned to a position where they have less contact with students, they can wear a mask and take the necessary precautions if they so choose. Maybe our fantastic governor who believes a 1,000 person protest is safe but a 10 person classroom is not, could foot the bill for providing all schools with anti-body tests that can be used for all teachers and students. You can't go to school unless you have the anti-bodies...maybe that is the answer.

But if we continue down the path of keeping schools closed, we will start to lose more and more teachers, which there is already a pretty bad shortage in Illinois, and students will continue to fall further behind both academically and socially.

I am not sure if you are a teacher or not but I can almost guarantee you that very few teacher are scared of this and want to be in school and even more so, the kids want and need to be in school.

My opinion is and it will probably never change, the costs are not outweighing the benefits anymore so it is time to move on with realistic precautions.

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:37 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.

Well, every time someone says anything about opening up, you post that it's too early, or, if we could just wait a while longer. Now you're questioning if we can return to any normalcy by Aug/Sept.

So, if it's always going to be too early and there's always going to be someone in imminent danger of death, what is the plan?

by OSUBucks Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:38 pm

Some of the National Guardsmen present at the protests in DC have now tested positive for COVID19. The protests are going to cost us some lives, it's too early to say how many.

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:05 pm

OSUBucks wrote:Some of the National Guardsmen present at the protests in DC have now tested positive for COVID19. The protests are going to cost us some lives, it's too early to say how many.

That doesn't matter. The Democrats told me so. Ending racism is more important than those people's lives.

American civilization isn't worth human cost though.

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:09 pm

Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.
Well, every time someone says anything about opening up, you post that it's too early, or, if we could just wait a while longer. Now you're questioning if we can return to any normalcy by Aug/Sept.

So, if it's always going to be too early and there's always going to be someone in imminent danger of death, what is the plan?

I never said anything about Aug or Sept. Nor did I say anything about indefinite.

What's the plan? As a nation, we are flying by the seat of our pants; that's the plan. In Wisconsin, we are full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, but in neighboring Illinois, we're at stage 3 of 5 stages. Like everything else, we have turned our response to the virus into a political circus, and our national ringleader has stumbled and bumbled his way through this pandemic from the very beginning up to the present.

When this is all said and done with either herd immunity or a vaccine, history is not going to look kindly on our response, nor on our elected leaders. This could well become the text book case study on how not to respond to a pandemic.

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:23 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.
Well, every time someone says anything about opening up, you post that it's too early, or, if we could just wait a while longer. Now you're questioning if we can return to any normalcy by Aug/Sept.

So, if it's always going to be too early and there's always going to be someone in imminent danger of death, what is the plan?

I never said anything about Aug or Sept. Nor did I say anything about indefinite.

What's the plan? As a nation, we are flying by the seat of our pants; that's the plan. In Wisconsin, we are full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, but in neighboring Illinois, we're at stage 3 of 5 stages. Like everything else, we have turned our response to the virus into a political circus, and our national ringleader has stumbled and bumbled his way through this pandemic from the very beginning up to the present.

When this is all said and done with either herd immunity or a vaccine, history is not going to look kindly on our response, nor on our elected leaders. This could well become the text book case study on how not to respond to a pandemic.

School starts in Aug/Sept. You were pretty specific in saying you don't think that normality there is a good idea.

What should we do/have done then since what we did/are doing is wrong?

by dusty7 Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:12 pm

Took a quick look at the numbers for Arizona, Arkansas, and Utah on USA Today. Positive tests are increasing, however the number of deaths has been fairly flat since the beginning of the pandemic.

by Head Idiot Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:27 pm

dusty7 wrote:Took a quick look at the numbers for Arizona, Arkansas, and Utah on USA Today. Positive tests are increasing, however the number of deaths has been fairly flat since the beginning of the pandemic.

Nonsense. There's panic in the streets! Death is on a rampage! Destruction!

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:09 pm

Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.
Well, every time someone says anything about opening up, you post that it's too early, or, if we could just wait a while longer. Now you're questioning if we can return to any normalcy by Aug/Sept.

So, if it's always going to be too early and there's always going to be someone in imminent danger of death, what is the plan?

I never said anything about Aug or Sept. Nor did I say anything about indefinite.

What's the plan? As a nation, we are flying by the seat of our pants; that's the plan. In Wisconsin, we are full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, but in neighboring Illinois, we're at stage 3 of 5 stages. Like everything else, we have turned our response to the virus into a political circus, and our national ringleader has stumbled and bumbled his way through this pandemic from the very beginning up to the present.

When this is all said and done with either herd immunity or a vaccine, history is not going to look kindly on our response, nor on our elected leaders. This could well become the text book case study on how not to respond to a pandemic.
School starts in Aug/Sept. You were pretty specific in saying you don't think that normality there is a good idea.

What should we do/have done then since what we did/are doing is wrong?

In-person school needs to be very different or don't do it at all and just do e-learning. No gathering in the cafeteria for lunch or breakfast for one. Taking temps of everyone who enters the building every day for another. No classrooms with desks less than six feet apart for another. No large study hall space. Mandatory masks in the hallways during passing periods. Perhaps we have a hybrid of in-person and e-learning such that e-learning takes place all the time, and students go in shifts to school on alternate days in order to satisfy social distancing minimums in the classroom.

We should have stuck with the restrictions for just a little while longer. We began relaxing as the curves were still on the rise or at the top of the curve. I would have preferred to delay relaxing until we were well into the down slope, which maybe would have meant 2-4 more weeks. My concern is that, in relaxing too soon, we will be setting ourselves up for wave after wave of curves and more restrictions. Far easier to bite the bullet and maintain existing restrictions than to try to institute them again after having relaxed them. I guarantee that you and your kind will whine about your turnips and any future restrictions even if the future curves get worse than the one we are on the down slope of now.

by 19delta Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:27 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What is the solution then? Indefinite lockdown?

Yes. I want everyone to cower in fear in their ivory towers forever and to hell with the economy.
Well, every time someone says anything about opening up, you post that it's too early, or, if we could just wait a while longer. Now you're questioning if we can return to any normalcy by Aug/Sept.

So, if it's always going to be too early and there's always going to be someone in imminent danger of death, what is the plan?

I never said anything about Aug or Sept. Nor did I say anything about indefinite.

What's the plan? As a nation, we are flying by the seat of our pants; that's the plan. In Wisconsin, we are full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes, but in neighboring Illinois, we're at stage 3 of 5 stages. Like everything else, we have turned our response to the virus into a political circus, and our national ringleader has stumbled and bumbled his way through this pandemic from the very beginning up to the present.

When this is all said and done with either herd immunity or a vaccine, history is not going to look kindly on our response, nor on our elected leaders. This could well become the text book case study on how not to respond to a pandemic.
School starts in Aug/Sept. You were pretty specific in saying you don't think that normality there is a good idea.

What should we do/have done then since what we did/are doing is wrong?

In-person school needs to be very different or don't do it at all and just do e-learning. No gathering in the cafeteria for lunch or breakfast for one. Taking temps of everyone who enters the building every day for another. No classrooms with desks less than six feet apart for another. No large study hall space. Mandatory masks in the hallways during passing periods. Perhaps we have a hybrid of in-person and e-learning such that e-learning takes place all the time, and students go in shifts to school on alternate days in order to satisfy social distancing minimums in the classroom.

We should have stuck with the restrictions for just a little while longer. We began relaxing as the curves were still on the rise or at the top of the curve. I would have preferred to delay relaxing until we were well into the down slope, which maybe would have meant 2-4 more weeks. My concern is that, in relaxing too soon, we will be setting ourselves up for wave after wave of curves and more restrictions. Far easier to bite the bullet and maintain existing restrictions than to try to institute them again after having relaxed them. I guarantee that you and your kind will whine about your turnips and any future restrictions even if the future curves get worse than the one we are on the down slope of now.

We should just shoot the coronavirus with all those automatic weapons from the 15th Ward.

by ramblinman Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:33 pm

19delta wrote:We should just shoot the coronavirus with all those automatic weapons from the 15th Ward.

*Yawn*

by dusty7 Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:46 pm

Maybe we should be including these individuals in the overall COVID death count. Technically they were killed by the virus....well the fear of the virus.
https://www.daily-journal.com/news/local/covids-impact-goes-beyond-infected/article_e74ce9a2-a9c2-11ea-9605-27bf64341ef9.html

According to this expert, no second wave will be coming
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/10/lockdown-unnecessary-claims-german-virologist/

More context on the increase in numbers in California and the Southwest
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html

USA Today graphs don't lie, overall the US is trending downward and has been since April 9, Illinois trending downward since 5/12, and drastic downward trend since 5/24. Still waiting on that mid June spike.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/

by OSUBucks Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:20 pm

766 new cases for Illinois today.

by Teetime Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:15 pm

Now we are getting to the bottom of this...

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-steve-huffman-ohio-senator-coronavirus-people-not-wash-hands-20200611-hjlhp4pwzva6pcp6myzlw7okwq-story.html

“I thought, ‘you have not been wearing your mask since you’ve been here, and you’re a doctor,'" Thomas said.

by ramblinman Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:55 am

dusty7 wrote:Maybe we should be including these individuals in the overall COVID death count. Technically they were killed by the virus....well the fear of the virus.
https://www.daily-journal.com/news/local/covids-impact-goes-beyond-infected/article_e74ce9a2-a9c2-11ea-9605-27bf64341ef9.html

According to this expert, no second wave will be coming
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/10/lockdown-unnecessary-claims-german-virologist/

More context on the increase in numbers in California and the Southwest
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/us/coronavirus-border-mexico-california-el-centro.html

USA Today graphs don't lie, overall the US is trending downward and has been since April 9, Illinois trending downward since 5/12, and drastic downward trend since 5/24. Still waiting on that mid June spike.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/

You are taking a short view of this. Try looking at it in the longer term.

In the absence of a vaccine, the experts are saying that the only way to defeat this virus is through herd immunity. Herd immunity is not achieved until 60%-70% of the population has been infected.

According to Dr. Michael Osterholm, a highly regarded infectious disease expert (Google him to see his creds if you have any doubt) [my comments are in brackets]...

"You'll see lots of debates about [the morbidity rate], is it 1 percent or 0.1 percent, whatever. None of us know. I can only say that if you look at just a population of the United States and say, 330 million people, if let's say 50 percent get infected, which is lower than actual herd immunity, you're now talking about 165 million people. That's a lot of infections.

If you look at that population and just take what we have now for understanding of the clinical disease and these are data combined from China, from what we saw in Europe and what we see in the United States today is about 80 percent of those people will actually have very mild to hardly noticeable illness [which is close to what you and others have been saying all along]. If the remaining 20 percent of that 165 million, if you look at that, about 10 percent will seek medical care, but not need hospitalization. About 10 percent or half of that will need hospitalization. So now you're talking about 16.5 million people [in need of hospitalization, albeit not all at the same time].

Of that 5 percent that will need not just hospitalization, but intensive care medicine, of that anywhere from 1.5 percent to 1 percent will die, or basically somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 to about 1.6 million people. That's where the number comes down by the time this thing is over with." [and that is if "only" 50% become infected, not the 60%-70% that epidemiologists agree is needed to achieve herd immunity]

All along, the naysayers and doubters have claimed that this is being overblown, and the open uppers have been pushing to open up before the curves even start to flatten. What is happening is that our collective pain tolerance for this keeps rising as the death toll and number of really sick people rise. So, the same people who were saying this was overblown back in February before we had a single death are saying the same thing today after we have had 115K deaths in this country alone. They are focused on the here and now, on the flattening and downturn in our state and even in their own counties, and not respecting the virus and how many people it will ultimately infect in the absence of a vaccine.

All who are focused on positivity rates and flattened and downward curves in Illinois need to understand that other states are experiencing different curves than ours, and that this is just the first curve. You can't just wish this thing away or pretend that just because it is diminishing now (in some areas), that it won't come back even worse in future waves. It is here to stay until herd immunity or a vaccine are achieved.

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