Coronavirus II

707 new cases today in Illinois today but the number of tests was down a little from last few days at 28,446. The positivity rate has been around 3% this past week but closer to 2.5% just for today. There were 24 new cases in Sangamon county yesterday, the most we've had since since the Pandemic started. Hospitals are no where near full here right now. Most of these new cases in our County are self quarantining.

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/countymetrics

Entire state in the blue which indicates stable COVID metrics, only a few counties have a warning (Chicago and St. Clair) on new positives with 58/100,000 and 85/100,000. Hospitalizations are down, COVID ICU is down, and only 136 of 5,000+ vents in use.

Death Rate with virus is 4.6% and survival rate in 94.4%.
Deaths among those under 20 - 1/12,724
Deaths by Gun Fire for those under 20 - 55/ 1,754,202 (Killed in Chicago/Pop of Under 20 in Illinois)

dusty7 wrote:Deaths among those under 20 - 1/12,724  
Deaths by Gun Fire for those under 20 - 55/ 1,754,202 (Killed in Chicago/Pop of Under 20 in Illinois)

So if you are under 20 in Illinois, you are over TWICE as likely to die from the virus as you are to die from gun fire.

Head Idiot wrote:

OldTitan wrote:70%+ of our teachers do not want to go back to full time school as usual.

What % of those teachers would be in favor of never going back though?

I should have clarified that the poll's choices all had the teachers in the building full time.

Frankly, for most teachers, e-learning, blended, or remote is plain more work.

I believe we have a very dedicated staff here.

I can't really tell you what the consensus of my building is. Our "building leadership team" put together a proposal yesterday that is a hybrid of in-person/online. Today, we got a survey asking how comfortable we were with returning to "brick and mortar" instruction and our preferences on masks. I voted that I was very comfortable with returning to traditional school and voted that masks should be required for all students and staff. No idea how in-line that is with everyone else's thoughts or votes however.

why would labs/health departments do this - what possible motive could they have? just a simple mistake?
i wonder if numbers have been misreported elsewhere? 
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-florida-department-of-health-says-some-labs-have-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results

Here's the thing...

All along, there have basically been two camps in this pandemic. There are those who place personal liberty and concern for the economy above the seriousness of the virus, and those who believe the public health experts and want to follow their advice and heed their warnings.

As a country, the people who wanted to respect the virus and the experts had their way for the first several weeks of the pandemic. I wish they hadn't. I wish it had happened the other way around.

As the country lost patience and wanted to get back to their normal lives again, more and more people began to clamor for lifting the restrictions. Believe it or not, like it or not, we lifted too early and we are paying the price now as a country. Illinois is doing fine now, but so were other states before they began to surge again. Generally speaking, we lifted either before we flattened the curve or we lifted once the curve was flattened but not far enough into the downslope of it.

If the libertarians and economists had their way at the beginning instead of the other way around, and things got out of hand quicker than they did, then the restrictions would have been enacted at or near the top of the curve, and they would have stayed in place while we rode the slope of the curve down. If that happened, then I think we would be in better shape now and moving forward.

Now, we are in a situation where states are loathe to bring back restrictions in response to the surge in confirmed cases. That will wind up hurting us even more as they delay and enact half-hearted measures.

We would be in a much better place now if the restrictions had been kept in place for just a few more weeks or maybe a month longer.

Should we have stayed closed down for longer? We did stay closed longer, maybe, but we did in Illinois which is partly why we are in a much better place than other states right now.

I agree with you Ramblin that now that any roll back on phases of business closures will be half-hearted and most likely will not be followed by owners and general population.

My issue with this whole thing is the belief that all areas of the state or nation need to be treated or react in the same way. Of we rely on science and data, many areas have not seen major outbreaks but yet they are forced to abide by rules because another area 100s of miles away is a hot spot. What is happening in California, Texas, and Florida is not happening in Illinois, but we think an increase of 100 cases is cause for panic, which it is not.

A focus solely on the number of cases is the wrong approach, spread is going to happen regardsless of the precautions you take, we know that from the past 3 months, but the focus should be the metrics on you capacity to treat those who get very sick, not just those with the virus

Right now all regions in Illinois are well below all threshold for Phase 4 after 3 weeks. We have seen some increase in total positive numbers but along with record numbers of testing on a few occasions, and positivity rate has increased .5% over the last 7 days. We have plenty of hospital beds available and vents along with a better understanding on how to treat the virus, which might explain the decreased use of vents and decrease in deaths, I think we can handle any spike that may occur with schools opening and allowing sports to take place with necessary precautions.

As some schools fully open and even more with minimal attendance, it will be interesting to see if the schools that are going 100% have more cases than those with limited attendance. We need to understand that most of these kids are out playing together, going to parties, and living somewhat normal lives with little to no social distancing or masks, so it is not like they are going from total isolation to being in school.

Some increase in spread is going to happen, some kids will get sick, some teachers will get sick, and family members will get sick, but science and data show it will have minimal effect on most of these people. Precautions need to be taken and followed, but regardless people will get sick. We cannot and will not ever be able stop 100% of the spread regardless of what we do, but most of the nation, and especially in Illinois, we can handle the potential increase in cases. That is where the focus needs to shift, not just on new positive cases.

ramblinman wrote:Here's the thing...

All along, there have basically been two camps in this pandemic.  There are those who place personal liberty and concern for the economy above the seriousness of the virus, and those who believe the public health experts and want to follow their advice and heed their warnings.  

As a country, the people who wanted to respect the virus and the experts had their way for the first several weeks of the pandemic.  I wish they hadn't.  I wish it had happened the other way around.  

As the country lost patience and wanted to get back to their normal lives again, more and more people began to clamor for lifting the restrictions.  Believe it or not, like it or not, we lifted too early and we are paying the price now as a country.  Illinois is doing fine now, but so were other states before they began to surge again.  Generally speaking, we lifted either before we flattened the curve or we lifted once the curve was flattened but not far enough into the downslope of it.  

If the libertarians and economists had their way at the beginning instead of the other way around, and things got out of hand quicker than they did, then the restrictions would have been enacted at or near the top of the curve, and they would have stayed in place while we rode the slope of the curve down.  If that happened, then I think we would be in better shape now and moving forward.  

Now, we are in a situation where states are loathe to bring back restrictions in response to the surge in confirmed cases.  That will wind up hurting us even more as they delay and enact half-hearted measures.

We would be in a much better place now if the restrictions had been kept in place for just a few more weeks or maybe a month longer.

Bullshit.

All you kept saying was the only metric that mattered was deaths. Not flattening the curve, not hospital numbers, preventing death. That is now WELL under control. And, now that it is, you and your "side" have again moved the goalposts.

I know, I know. I'm an asshole that doesn't care about anyone, we should listen to scientists (but don't remember what they said yesterday) my parents, your mask protects me, mine protects you (that gem has become the 1700th slogan of IDOC recently in memos- just like flatten the curve was) death, destruction, yada yada yada.

Head Idiot wrote:

ramblinman wrote:Here's the thing...

All along, there have basically been two camps in this pandemic.  There are those who place personal liberty and concern for the economy above the seriousness of the virus, and those who believe the public health experts and want to follow their advice and heed their warnings.  

As a country, the people who wanted to respect the virus and the experts had their way for the first several weeks of the pandemic.  I wish they hadn't.  I wish it had happened the other way around.  

As the country lost patience and wanted to get back to their normal lives again, more and more people began to clamor for lifting the restrictions.  Believe it or not, like it or not, we lifted too early and we are paying the price now as a country.  Illinois is doing fine now, but so were other states before they began to surge again.  Generally speaking, we lifted either before we flattened the curve or we lifted once the curve was flattened but not far enough into the downslope of it.  

If the libertarians and economists had their way at the beginning instead of the other way around, and things got out of hand quicker than they did, then the restrictions would have been enacted at or near the top of the curve, and they would have stayed in place while we rode the slope of the curve down.  If that happened, then I think we would be in better shape now and moving forward.  

Now, we are in a situation where states are loathe to bring back restrictions in response to the surge in confirmed cases.  That will wind up hurting us even more as they delay and enact half-hearted measures.

We would be in a much better place now if the restrictions had been kept in place for just a few more weeks or maybe a month longer.

Bullshit.

All you kept saying was the only metric that mattered was deaths. Not flattening the curve, not hospital numbers, preventing death. That is now WELL under control. And, now that it is, you and your "side" have again moved the goalposts.

I know, I know. I'm an asshole that doesn't care about anyone, we should listen to scientists (but don't remember what they said yesterday) my parents, your mask protects me, mine protects you (that gem has become the 1700th slogan of IDOC recently in memos- just like flatten the curve was) death, destruction, yada yada yada.

Precisely what of what I said is  bullshit?  Which part, specifically?  That we lifted too early?  That we would be in better shape now (relative to the virus) if we had kept restrictions in place for a few weeks longer?  That my "side" had its way early on but your side ultimately won out which resulted in restrictions being lifted too soon?

We haven't moved the goalposts, but we are alarmed by the huge increase in confirmed cases, because the scientists that you take a perverted glee in slamming have determined that deaths lag behind case diagnoses by a few weeks and we know this virus takes the lives of about 4% of confirmed cases.  Back in the spring, when the restrictions were in place, we had a daily high of new cases on April 24 of 35,930 in the U.S.  On July 10, with most states having significantly relaxed those restrictions, we had 66,786 new confirmed cases.  Yesterday, we had 61,834.  So, let's see where the deaths are in a few weeks after hovering around 60,000 new daily confirmed cases for the past week now. Perhaps they will just "miraculously disappear" as Trump says.

0.26% overall chance of dying. Way lower for kids aged 1-18.

RM, You do realize that for every confirmed case there are likely at least 10 infected people that have never been tested. Both the CDC and Dr Fauci agree on that. Mentioning 4% fatalities of confirmed cases is really an irrelevant stat because it's no where close to the actual fatality rate but you repeatedly bring it up. Yesterday the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield said that vacationers from the North were a bigger factor in the high infection rate in some Southern states than those states opening early. Dr Fauci thinks like you that it's because they opened early. I'm a fan of Dr Fauci but he has been wrong about a few things over the past few months, like just about everyone else. Hell, a few months ago he wasn't even an advocate for wearing masks. The point is even the experts disagree on some of these issues as we're learning more about the virus as time goes on.
The media is doing their best to misinform the people on the virus. The past couple of days they are claiming that once you are infected you are still vulnerable for getting the virus again. The truth is more likely that once infected over a period of time your immunity will decrease. Once we have a vaccine it might be necessary to get a booster shot after six months. Also a couple days ago Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC was claiming that COVID19 causes brain damage in children. There isn't much scientific evidence out there to support that. Once Biden defeats Trump in November, which right now I think is pretty likely, the media narrative will change.

1187 new cases today and 8 deaths for Illinois and there were 38,161 tests. Positivity rate for 7/8-7/14 was 3.1%

OSUBucks wrote:RM, You do realize that for every confirmed case there are likely at least 10 infected people that have never been tested. Both the CDC and Dr Fauci agree on that. Mentioning 4% fatalities of confirmed cases is really an irrelevant stat because it's no where close to the actual fatality rate but you repeatedly bring it up. Yesterday the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield said that vacationers from the North were a bigger factor in the high infection rate in some Southern states than those states opening early. Dr Fauci thinks like you that it's because they opened early. I'm a fan of Dr Fauci but he has been wrong about a few things over the past few months, like just about everyone else. Hell, a few months ago he wasn't even an advocate for wearing masks. The point is even the experts disagree on some of these issues as we're learning more about the virus as time goes on.

The media is doing their best to misinform the people on the virus. The past couple of days they are claiming that once you are infected you are still vulnerable for getting the virus again. The truth is more likely that once infected over a period of time your immunity will decrease. Once we have a vaccine it might be necessary to get a booster shot after six months. Also a couple days ago Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC was claiming that COVID19 causes brain damage in children. There isn't much scientific evidence out there to support that. Once Biden defeats Trump in November, which right now I think is pretty likely, the media narrative will change.

Of course I realize that there are more people infected with the virus than have been tested and confirmed. I can only presume you realize that it only stands to reason that there are people who have died from this virus without it being confirmed that it was the virus that took their lives.

The only mortality rate stats we have are those that match covid related deaths with confirmed covid cases and the stat that shows covid related deaths per 100,000 members of the general population, regardless of their health situation. Right now, in this country, that first stat stands at 4%. As the total number of confirmed cases go up, and the vast majority of people are surviving, we have seen that stat go lower and lower. if you think the 4% number makes it look bad, you should see what the deaths per 100K look like...second worst in the world after the UK.

BTW, I got the stats from Johns Hopkins and not the media. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

ramblinman wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:RM, You do realize that for every confirmed case there are likely at least 10 infected people that have never been tested. Both the CDC and Dr Fauci agree on that. Mentioning 4% fatalities of confirmed cases is really an irrelevant stat because it's no where close to the actual fatality rate but you repeatedly bring it up. Yesterday the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield said that vacationers from the North were a bigger factor in the high infection rate in some Southern states than those states opening early. Dr Fauci thinks like you that it's because they opened early. I'm a fan of Dr Fauci but he has been wrong about a few things over the past few months, like just about everyone else. Hell, a few months ago he wasn't even an advocate for wearing masks. The point is even the experts disagree on some of these issues as we're learning more about the virus as time goes on.

The media is doing their best to misinform the people on the virus. The past couple of days they are claiming that once you are infected you are still vulnerable for getting the virus again. The truth is more likely that once infected over a period of time your immunity will decrease. Once we have a vaccine it might be necessary to get a booster shot after six months. Also a couple days ago Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC was claiming that COVID19 causes brain damage in children. There isn't much scientific evidence out there to support that. Once Biden defeats Trump in November, which right now I think is pretty likely, the media narrative will change.

Of course I realize that there are more people infected with the virus than have been tested and confirmed.  I can only presume you realize that it only stands to reason that there are people who have died from this virus without it being confirmed that it was the virus that took their lives.  

The only mortality rate stats we have are those that match covid related deaths with confirmed covid cases and the stat that shows covid related deaths per 100,000 members of the general population, regardless of their health situation.  Right now, in this country, that first stat stands at 4%.  As the total number of confirmed cases go up, and the vast majority of people are surviving, we have seen that stat go lower and lower.   if you think the 4% number makes it look bad, you should see what the deaths per 100K look like...second worst in the world after the UK.

BTW, I got the stats from Johns Hopkins and not the media.  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we're counting gunshot and car crash deaths as COVID deaths, I highly doubt that statistic is in any way being downplayed.

OSUBucks wrote:1187 new cases today and 8 deaths for Illinois and there were 38,161 tests. Positivity rate for 7/8-7/14 was 3.1%

The three highest daily case counts since June 2 have come in the past six days.

ramblinman wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:1187 new cases today and 8 deaths for Illinois and there were 38,161 tests. Positivity rate for 7/8-7/14 was 3.1%

The three highest daily case counts since June 2 have come in the past six days.

Our 2 highest days in number of tests completed are in the last 6 days also.

ramblinman wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:RM, You do realize that for every confirmed case there are likely at least 10 infected people that have never been tested. Both the CDC and Dr Fauci agree on that. Mentioning 4% fatalities of confirmed cases is really an irrelevant stat because it's no where close to the actual fatality rate but you repeatedly bring it up. Yesterday the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield said that vacationers from the North were a bigger factor in the high infection rate in some Southern states than those states opening early. Dr Fauci thinks like you that it's because they opened early. I'm a fan of Dr Fauci but he has been wrong about a few things over the past few months, like just about everyone else. Hell, a few months ago he wasn't even an advocate for wearing masks. The point is even the experts disagree on some of these issues as we're learning more about the virus as time goes on.

The media is doing their best to misinform the people on the virus. The past couple of days they are claiming that once you are infected you are still vulnerable for getting the virus again. The truth is more likely that once infected over a period of time your immunity will decrease. Once we have a vaccine it might be necessary to get a booster shot after six months. Also a couple days ago Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC was claiming that COVID19 causes brain damage in children. There isn't much scientific evidence out there to support that. Once Biden defeats Trump in November, which right now I think is pretty likely, the media narrative will change.

Of course I realize that there are more people infected with the virus than have been tested and confirmed.  I can only presume you realize that it only stands to reason that there are people who have died from this virus without it being confirmed that it was the virus that took their lives.  

The only mortality rate stats we have are those that match covid related deaths with confirmed covid cases and the stat that shows covid related deaths per 100,000 members of the general population, regardless of their health situation.  Right now, in this country, that first stat stands at 4%.  As the total number of confirmed cases go up, and the vast majority of people are surviving, we have seen that stat go lower and lower.   if you think the 4% number makes it look bad, you should see what the deaths per 100K look like...second worst in the world after the UK.

BTW, I got the stats from Johns Hopkins and not the media.  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Of course you realize that there are deaths counted as COVID19 deaths in which it wasn't the cause of death. Hospitals receive a nice check from Medicare if COVID19 is listed as cause of death. CDC says fatality rate in US is around .26% but go ahead and keep listing that inaccurate 4% if it makes you feel better.

Oh no. Red marks.

I should now issue a complete bullshit apology where I read a prepared statement without looking up and beg for forgiveness. I will then use social media to virtue signal every cause so that my brand will not be harmed.

5/5 eye rolls

Highest case count was 4,014 cases with 29,266 tests with a positivity rate of 13.7% on 5/12.

Last week on 7/10 we had 1317 cases with 32,987 tests with a positivity rate of 3.9%

That a 3,721 increase in tests and a 2,697 decrease in positive tests.

Total number of cases means nothing without context

Deaths are difficult to calculate due to the differences in reporting and the delay but
Highest Deaths were 191 on 5/13 and 2 weeks earlier new cases were the 2,000s.

Lowest deaths was 6 on 7/6 and two weeks earlier new cases were in the 700s.

We currently have 1,757 ICU beds available, let's say 10% of new cases need ICU care, we would need to see over 175,700 cases in a short period of time to fill those beds. On top of that, we can increase capacity of ICUs if needed as well.

Macon County has had 1 day of more than 3 cases since D-Day June 6. I think we've zero or 1 death.

Head Idiot wrote:Oh no. Red marks.

I should now issue a complete bullshit apology where I read a prepared statement without looking up and beg for forgiveness. I will then use social media to virtue signal every cause so that my brand will not be harmed.

5/5 eye rolls

FWIW, I never give you a -1 for a post that you direct at me. I have given you several over the years when you have been a dick towards other posters.

OSUBucks wrote:

ramblinman wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:RM, You do realize that for every confirmed case there are likely at least 10 infected people that have never been tested. Both the CDC and Dr Fauci agree on that. Mentioning 4% fatalities of confirmed cases is really an irrelevant stat because it's no where close to the actual fatality rate but you repeatedly bring it up. Yesterday the head of the CDC, Robert Redfield said that vacationers from the North were a bigger factor in the high infection rate in some Southern states than those states opening early. Dr Fauci thinks like you that it's because they opened early. I'm a fan of Dr Fauci but he has been wrong about a few things over the past few months, like just about everyone else. Hell, a few months ago he wasn't even an advocate for wearing masks. The point is even the experts disagree on some of these issues as we're learning more about the virus as time goes on.

The media is doing their best to misinform the people on the virus. The past couple of days they are claiming that once you are infected you are still vulnerable for getting the virus again. The truth is more likely that once infected over a period of time your immunity will decrease. Once we have a vaccine it might be necessary to get a booster shot after six months. Also a couple days ago Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC was claiming that COVID19 causes brain damage in children. There isn't much scientific evidence out there to support that. Once Biden defeats Trump in November, which right now I think is pretty likely, the media narrative will change.

Of course I realize that there are more people infected with the virus than have been tested and confirmed.  I can only presume you realize that it only stands to reason that there are people who have died from this virus without it being confirmed that it was the virus that took their lives.  

The only mortality rate stats we have are those that match covid related deaths with confirmed covid cases and the stat that shows covid related deaths per 100,000 members of the general population, regardless of their health situation.  Right now, in this country, that first stat stands at 4%.  As the total number of confirmed cases go up, and the vast majority of people are surviving, we have seen that stat go lower and lower.   if you think the 4% number makes it look bad, you should see what the deaths per 100K look like...second worst in the world after the UK.

BTW, I got the stats from Johns Hopkins and not the media.  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Of course you realize that there are deaths counted as COVID19 deaths in which it wasn't the cause of death. Hospitals receive a nice check from Medicare if COVID19 is listed as cause of death. CDC says fatality rate in US is around .26% but go ahead and keep listing that inaccurate 4% if it makes you feel better.

The 4% is not inaccurate. It is precisely accurate as a percentage of confirmed cases. Pick your poison: 4% or 41 deaths per 100K of population.

True, But it isn't the fatality rate of COVID19, which is a much more important statistic than confirmed cases. Many of the people who have been tested are folks who are already showing symptoms. There are a lot more asymptomatic people than there are sick people.

27 new cases in Sangamon county today, the most we've had since this started.