Re: Coronavirus II

by ramblinman Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:34 am

Head Idiot wrote:If a headline said 100k people with serious health conditions died (who would have continued to live were it not for the infectious disease that precipitated their death) since March, would we as a country even bat an eye?

I would hope that the answer to the above amended question would be yes.

by ramblinman Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:53 am

dusty7 wrote:Our hospitals are so overrun with cases that they are laying people off? I understand being cautious but the fear that we have is starting to get out of hand. You are more likely to stay at home for a few days with this virus and never be more sick than a cold or flu, if at all. But yeah, continue to keep everything shut down and ruin millions of livelihoods but make sure to go out and stand arm and arm to protest for your beliefs, that's ok.

I agree that politicians' and public health officials' reluctance to caution against the protests during a pandemic does send a mixed message. To me, though, that is more a commentary about the political value of politicians wanting to be seen on the side of the protesters outweighing the political cost of telling people not to exercise their right to protest. Like I said last week, the pandemic has become politicized.

As to your sarcasm about hospitals being so overrun that they are laying people off, look around the country, and not just in your little corner of it. Look at states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida, all of them reporting their highest daily case totals yet in the past week. Look at Arizona where there is serious concern about the hospitalizations.

Coronavirus II - Page 14 ABCN_CovidArizonaDNC_v01_LY_hpEmbed_22x15_992

Coronavirus II - Page 14 ABCN_CovidArizonaDNC_v01_LY_hpEmbed_22x15_992

Continue to keep everything shut down? Tell me, where? Where is everything shut down? Seems to me that things are opening back up. That's the trend. Illinois is poised to pretty much open everything back up in a couple of weeks with the exception of very large gatherings.

dusty7 wrote:Oh yeah, and no spike from protests yet and numbers nationwide for deaths and positive cases continue to drop with the exception of a few not spots.

Take New York and its recent precipitous decline in cases and hospitalizations out of the equation, and the national numbers don't look all that great.

by OSUBucks Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:26 am

The experts don't agree on why there are spikes in some states but not others. Florida opened early and is now seeing a spike. Georgia opened early too and borders Florida but they're not seeing the spike that Florida is. Maybe folks in some states relaxed sooner than they should have and quit wearing masks when they went out and that has contributed. In the last several weeks we've had millions of people in the streets in close quarters protesting. There was a study showing that if Trump had reacted a week sooner 36k lives would have been saved. I will be surprised if you ever see a study on how many lives were lost because of the protests.

by dusty7 Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:39 pm

There have been many reasons suggested for current spikes ranging from opening up, increased testing, newly affected areas, immigrants and border town cases coming from Mexico, and testing before surgeries. Either way, the death rate has continued to drop, especially the past two weeks.

All numbers across the US are dropping with the exception of a few areas that were largely unaffected by the first wave. I saw one expert suggest, incant find the link, that this increase may be the 2nd wave, which won't be as bad as the first, then we will see a 3rd in the fall, and a 4th in the winter and each spike will be progressively lower.

by ramblinman Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:25 pm

dusty7 wrote:There have been many reasons suggested for current spikes ranging from opening up, increased testing, newly affected areas, immigrants and border town cases coming from Mexico, and testing before surgeries. Either way, the death rate has continued to drop, especially the past two weeks.

All numbers across the US are dropping with the exception of a few areas that were largely unaffected by the first wave. I saw one expert suggest, incant find the link, that this increase may be the 2nd wave, which won't be as bad as the first, then we will see a 3rd in the fall, and a 4th in the winter and each spike will be progressively lower.

And I've seen experts say that we are still in the first wave. And I did find the link: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/12/876224115/coronavirus-second-wave-nope-were-still-stuck-in-the-first-one

I really found that article to provide a very understandable explanation about the reproduction number relative to the spread of the virus. Here is an excerpt from that article explaining the reproduction number:

"So why is the U.S. stuck in a coronavirus plateau despite months of widespread social distancing? To explain, it helps to get a bit technical. The key indicator at issue is what's called the "reproduction number" of the coronavirus — or the R for short — essentially a proxy for how powerfully infection is spreading in your community. It tells you, for each individual who is infected, how many other people this person will go on to infect. When the reproduction number is above 1, case counts will spiral upward exponentially. When it gets to well below 1 and stays there, outbreaks subside.

For example, if the reproduction number is 2, then one person goes on to infect two others. Those two people go on to infect four others. Those four go on to infect eight, then 16 and so on. If you assume, say, a six-day interval between each new round of infections — in just over a month, that one initial person will have launched a chain that has infected 127 people.

Most estimates are that early this year, when no measures were being taken to keep the coronavirus in check, the reproduction number in the U.S. was above 2.

The stay-at-home measures and other social distancing efforts that states undertook this spring served to push the reproduction number to slightly below 1 — to 0.91, according to an estimate by Youyang Gu, an independent modeler whose work is highly regarded by prominent epidemiologists.

This halted the upward spiral of cases. But because the reproduction number was still so close to 1, the curve of new infections never really bent sharply downward. Essentially most of the U.S. reached a kind of steady state — with each infected person passing the virus on to one new person in a regular drip-drip of new infections and new deaths.

Now that states have opened up, the reproduction number has started to creep back up above 1. According to Gu's analysis, that is now the case in more than two-thirds of the states."

All numbers across the US are definitely not dropping with only a few exceptions. Multiple media sources are reporting that 20+ states are experiencing an uptick in daily new cases. Plus everything depends on your beginning point for saying that numbers are dropping. If you just look at the last week, for example, Illinois actually had 60 deaths more than we had in the previous week. Georgia (the first state to relax restrictions) had 139 more deaths last week than they had the week before. Arizona, South Carolina, and Alabama each had over 2,000 new cases more than they reported the previous week. And, here is the link: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronavirus-infections-us/#close

Additionally, I have seen multiple reports that the second wave could be worse than the first. Here are a few links reporting that possibility:

https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/wary-of-second-wave-of-covid-19-dont-relax-with-reopening-officials-warn-2436259

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-a-covid-19-wave-in-the-fall-could-look-like

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/second-wave-covid-19-1.5570905

by dusty7 Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:59 pm

For every expert or study that says it's still rising, there is one that says it's declining.

This from the CDC stating that "Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) continue to decline or remain stable at low levels."

Last weeks spike resulted in a positivity increase of .3% to 6.3%. Public health and clinical labs saw decreases in positivity while commercial labs saw an increase.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

The R value, which is useful during a widespread outbreak can become a flawed measurement of spread once the number of positive tests starts to fall.

www.sciencefocus.com/news/is-the-covid-19-r-number-still-a-useful-measure/amp/

From the article:
So why does R become less useful?
1. When there are few cases, R is impossible to estimate with accuracy and will have wide confidence intervals that are likely to include one. But this does not necessarily mean the epidemic is increasing.
2. As incidence decreases, R will tend towards 1, and has to be evaluated in conjunction with incidence.
3. R is an average measure. When incidence is low, an outbreak in one place could result in estimates of R for the entire region to become higher than one.

Nobody has any clue what will happen and people are now just saying things to stay relevant in the media, see Fauci saying something different every week, and the politicians seem awfully quiet on this the past few weeks. It is sad that this pandemic has become a political issue with both sides publishing information to appeal to thier base, which does not give we the people reliable answers. This is all the fault of the media choosing sides and not being consistent, fair, reliable, and credible in thier reporting of all issues.

by OSUBucks Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:12 pm

While some states have the number of cases spiking at least 29 states have had decreases in cases from 3 weeks ago and the overall number of new cases is a little less than 3 weeks ago. The protests across the country have likely had an effect but we may never know how much. Some states probably should have waited a few more weeks before opening but they needed to work and took that risk. We have a good trend going here at home. We've had 31 deaths in Sangamon county but 25 are from one nursing home that really screwed up and didn't follow protocol. Menard and Mason counties have had 0 COVID19 deaths. 53% of Illinois deaths were elderly in nursing homes. Too many nursing homes in the Chicago area didn't properly protect their elderly and that's tragic. We are due to go to Phase 4 a week from Friday and we are on point to be ready by then unless we see a spike from the protests.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

by ging Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:20 pm

dusty7 wrote:For every expert or study that says it's still rising, there is one that says it's declining.

this is what my experience has been. who do we believe?

by OSUBucks Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:31 pm

This is from 4 days ago but indicates an overall decrease.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-map-new-mexico-oregon-70e7fe75-3403-4e63-a3a4-b3a602c73f6e.html

by dusty7 Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:38 pm

People believe what they read and what they see but unfortunately, we are so closed minded we only click on the stories that fit our own point of view.

Eventually, the cookies in our internet browsers pick up on our beliefs and only show us stories that fit our point of view.

Because of this, we never get the full story, we only see and hear what we want to see and hear.

This has created an entire generation of closed minded individuals who never take the time to understand the opposing side of the story. Hence where we are at currently, we will never get along as a nation again.

by OSUBucks Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:23 pm

18 deaths and 473 new cases for Illinois today. Good way to start off the new week.

by ramblinman Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:29 pm

Coronavirus II - Page 14 6a1aa640-4d11-40f6-85a4-7855271630a1

20 states are reporting decreases of 10% or more in the number of new cases this week versus last. 12 states with increases between 10% and 50%, and six states with increases of 50% or more. The remaining 12 states are either up or down less than 10% and are considered stable.

What I find very interesting in this graphic is the significant concentration of states with daily new cases on the rise in the southernmost latitudes of the U.S. From what Trump and others have said/surmised, this virus is ostensibly tied to the weather in that it recedes in the warmer months and increases in the colder months. This is why many are predicting a second wave in the U.S. with the onset of colder weather in the 4th quarter of the year.

If the above is true, then why are most of the states experiencing increases in the number of new cases in the southernmost areas of the country, which are arguably the warmest? Arizona has been having sweltering heat for the past several weeks, and their new cases have been skyrocketing at roughly the same time. Could it have anything to do with these being mostly red (GOP) states to begin with, many of which have been dragging their heels in terms of closing late or leading the way in terms of reopening early? Enquiring minds want to know!

Sorry that the eastern two-thirds of the country was cut off in the graphic. The important numbers are in the chart in terms of the numbers of states and how much they are down or up.

by OSUBucks Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:52 pm

I have wondered myself why some warm weather states have had recent surges. I'm hoping that the recent surges down there are mostly a result of protests and opening up to soon and once we get into July this will be about gone in the US, at least this round. I still think this is round 1 and what's going on in some Southern states is the last gasp of round 1. There are some experts who think it will be with us all Summer. Nobody knows for sure. I've got to give Pritzker some props, we've been in a steady decrease for several weeks now and maybe him and his professionals advising him deserve some credit.

by Teetime Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:58 pm

OSUBucks wrote:I have wondered myself why some warm weather states have had recent surges. I'm hoping that the recent surges down there are mostly a result of protests and opening up to soon and once we get into July this will be about gone in the US, at least this round. I still think this is round 1 and what's going on in some Southern states is the last gasp of round 1. There are some experts who think it will be with us all Summer. Nobody knows for sure. I've got to give Pritzker some props, we've been in a steady decrease for several weeks now and maybe him and his professionals advising him deserve some credit.

He just followed the advice of the Trump administration and CDC.

That is to say the advice they were giving once they came to grips with the severity.

The administration abandoned its own recommendations and gagged the CDC as soon as the daily press conferences wore out their usefulness.

by Head Idiot Mon Jun 15, 2020 5:29 pm

ging wrote:
dusty7 wrote:For every expert or study that says it's still rising, there is one that says it's declining.

this is what my experience has been. who do we believe?

by dusty7 Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:25 pm

Lots of panic about COVID taking up hospital beds in Florida but elective surgeries and other ailments are those filling the beds.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/despite-little-hospital-occupancy-health-officials-say-no-need-to-worry.amp?__twitter_impression=true

The 7 day average on deaths has been steadily falling since 4/16 even with the current increase in cases. I wish the media would also publish the number of documented recoveries on a daily basis and publicize that number as much as they do new cases and deaths.

Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

by newcom Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:35 pm

How about the media posting some percentages for all of this.
New cases vs how many were tested
Mortality Rate year to date for the past 5 years
Covid Deats ve Flu the past 5 years.

by lefty120 Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:58 pm

All of those stats would indeed be helpful. I would answer that by saying I’m not sure we will ever get a true number of COVID cases and resulting deaths to compare to other years. So many have had it and never been reported on top of the fact that each political side is going to spin numbers to help their cause, be it panic or calm.

by ramblinman Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:24 pm

dusty7 wrote:Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

Even though you are the one who likes to say that getting this disease isn't a death sentence, that's a mortality rate of 7% of all closed cases. Not saying that 7% is anything close to a death sentence, but I sure wish the odds were better than 1 in 14.

Imagine you were living with asthma or COPD quite reasonably up until now, and someone hands you 14 pills. You are told that 13 of the pills are placebos and one of the pills will kill you. You are given two options and two options only. One option is to take your chances on Russian roulette with the pills knowing that you have a 1 in 14 chance of dying. The other option is to do nothing but isolate yourself for four months after which you are told your chances would improve greatly. Which would you choose? Also, everyone is told that your chances will improve even more if they band together and isolate on your behalf. Would you hold it against them if they didn't do it, or would you urge them to do it?

by OSUBucks Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:29 pm

This study done by University of Washington estimates 200k deaths from COVID19 by October.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-coronavirus-model-projects-200000-people-could-die-of-covid-19-by-october/ar-BB15y6eS

by 19delta Tue Jun 16, 2020 2:54 pm

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

Even though you are the one who likes to say that getting this disease isn't a death sentence, that's a mortality rate of 7% of all closed cases. Not saying that 7% is anything close to a death sentence, but I sure wish the odds were better than 1 in 14.

Imagine you were living with asthma or COPD quite reasonably up until now, and someone hands you 14 pills. You are told that 13 of the pills are placebos and one of the pills will kill you. You are given two options and two options only. One option is to take your chances on Russian roulette with the pills knowing that you have a 1 in 14 chance of dying. The other option is to do nothing but isolate yourself for four months after which you are told your chances would improve greatly. Which would you choose? Also, everyone is told that your chances will improve even more if they band together and isolate on your behalf. Would you hold it against them if they didn't do it, or would you urge them to do it?

So, in your choices, either the at-risk isolate or the at-risk AND the healthy isolate.

Either way, the at-risk need to isolate. So, let's just do that.

by dusty7 Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:17 pm

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

Even though you are the one who likes to say that getting this disease isn't a death sentence, that's a mortality rate of 7% of all closed cases. Not saying that 7% is anything close to a death sentence, but I sure wish the odds were better than 1 in 14.

Imagine you were living with asthma or COPD quite reasonably up until now, and someone hands you 14 pills. You are told that 13 of the pills are placebos and one of the pills will kill you. You are given two options and two options only. One option is to take your chances on Russian roulette with the pills knowing that you have a 1 in 14 chance of dying. The other option is to do nothing but isolate yourself for four months after which you are told your chances would improve greatly. Which would you choose? Also, everyone is told that your chances will improve even more if they band together and isolate on your behalf. Would you hold it against them if they didn't do it, or would you urge them to do it?

First of all, getting this disease is not a 1 in 14 chance and although 7% died, most were in long term facilities, and had other conditions that contributed to their death. What were the chances they died at the same time regardless of COVID? In Kankakee county, the number of deaths this year is below average even with this disease, which would suggest these individuals would have died from their current condition not COVID. Even for those with asthma and COPD, this virus is not a death sentence, treatment is improving because we know more about the disease and how to effectively treat it. If this is not true, than explain the decrease in deaths since April

As for your scenario, I would not take the pill and I would self isolate. In no way would I expect other people to self isolate in the hopes that I don’t get the disease. I would not want anyone to lose their job, stop worshipping, or stop living their life because I might get sick. I will take the precautions I need to take to stay safe. If it would cause me to lose my job, I would find a way to cope or just go to work and take my chances.

It sucks for at risk individuals but that is how this disease works. Say I’m allergic to peanuts, I don’t expect everybody to stop eating peanuts, I take the proper precautions to protect myself by carrying an Epipen. According to the experts, wearing a mask greatly, washing your hands, and not touching your face decreases your chances on contracting COVID. I would much rather do that instead of expecting millions of others to change their entires lives just so I don’t get sick.

by 19delta Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:46 pm

dusty7 wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

Even though you are the one who likes to say that getting this disease isn't a death sentence, that's a mortality rate of 7% of all closed cases. Not saying that 7% is anything close to a death sentence, but I sure wish the odds were better than 1 in 14.

Imagine you were living with asthma or COPD quite reasonably up until now, and someone hands you 14 pills. You are told that 13 of the pills are placebos and one of the pills will kill you. You are given two options and two options only. One option is to take your chances on Russian roulette with the pills knowing that you have a 1 in 14 chance of dying. The other option is to do nothing but isolate yourself for four months after which you are told your chances would improve greatly. Which would you choose? Also, everyone is told that your chances will improve even more if they band together and isolate on your behalf. Would you hold it against them if they didn't do it, or would you urge them to do it?

First of all, getting this disease is not a 1 in 14 chance and although 7% died, most were in long term facilities, and had other conditions that contributed to their death. What were the chances they died at the same time regardless of COVID? In Kankakee county, the number of deaths this year is below average even with this disease, which would suggest these individuals would have died from their current condition not COVID. Even for those with asthma and COPD, this virus is not a death sentence, treatment is improving because we know more about the disease and how to effectively treat it. If this is not true, than explain the decrease in deaths since April

As for your scenario, I would not take the pill and I would self isolate. In no way would I expect other people to self isolate in the hopes that I don’t get the disease. I would not want anyone to lose their job, stop worshipping, or stop living their life because I might get sick. I will take the precautions I need to take to stay safe. If it would cause me to lose my job, I would find a way to cope or just go to work and take my chances.

It sucks for at risk individuals but that is how this disease works. Say I’m allergic to peanuts, I don’t expect everybody to stop eating peanuts, I take the proper precautions to protect myself by carrying an Epipen. According to the experts, wearing a mask greatly, washing your hands, and not touching your face decreases your chances on contracting COVID. I would much rather do that instead of expecting millions of others to change their entires lives just so I don’t get sick.

The response will be "something...something...turnips." Laughing

by OSUBucks Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:10 pm

623 new cases for Illinois today.

by ramblinman Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:18 pm

19delta wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:Of the 1,228 cases in Kankakee County, there are 834 recoveries, 333 active cases, 4 patients in hospital. Total of 61 deaths of which 45 were in long term care facilities, and 100% had other health issues.

Even though you are the one who likes to say that getting this disease isn't a death sentence, that's a mortality rate of 7% of all closed cases. Not saying that 7% is anything close to a death sentence, but I sure wish the odds were better than 1 in 14.

Imagine you were living with asthma or COPD quite reasonably up until now, and someone hands you 14 pills. You are told that 13 of the pills are placebos and one of the pills will kill you. You are given two options and two options only. One option is to take your chances on Russian roulette with the pills knowing that you have a 1 in 14 chance of dying. The other option is to do nothing but isolate yourself for four months after which you are told your chances would improve greatly. Which would you choose? Also, everyone is told that your chances will improve even more if they band together and isolate on your behalf. Would you hold it against them if they didn't do it, or would you urge them to do it?

So, in your choices, either the at-risk isolate or the at-risk AND the healthy isolate.

Either way, the at-risk need to isolate. So, let's just do that.

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