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Coronavirus I

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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 6:08 pm

Illinois began its stay at home order on March 21. On that day, there was one death reported due to the virus. Prior to that point, a total of five deaths had been reported.

Over the past two days, Illinois has averaged 156 virus related deaths per day. And we are talking about moving to relaxed restrictions at the end of this month? WTF?!

Oh, right, silly me. It was never about deaths and always about mitigating the curve so we don't overburden our healthcare infrastructure. Rolling Eyes

With 77% of all COVID deaths occurring in individuals aged 65 or older, we'll just let this disease run its course and cull the weak old folks. Survival of the fittest, right?
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 6:24 pm

What the hell are you talking about? Our governor and pretty much every lockdown proponent has said at every turn this wasn't about death, but flattening so the healthcare system doesn't get over run.

Are you doubting that or just worried because you're in that demographic at the end?
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Post by BirdWatcher Wed May 06, 2020 6:27 pm

Flattening the curve -- for those not up on their calculus -- doesn't change the area under the curve (total deaths). It just spreads it out to relieve the spike.

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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 6:49 pm

Head Idiot wrote:What the hell are you talking about? Our governor and pretty much every lockdown proponent has said at every turn this wasn't about death, but flattening so the healthcare system doesn't get over run.

Are you doubting that?

So, as long as the healthcare system is healthy, the number of deaths is irrelevant to the continued or relaxed restrictions.  Interesting take you have there.

How many daily deaths in Illinois would there have to be before you would change your mind?  Obviously 156 per day is within your comfort zone.
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Post by OSUBucks Wed May 06, 2020 6:52 pm

19delta wrote:Here's what Joe Biden said just 19 months ago regarding the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh:

"Former Vice President Joe Biden told reporters in September 2018, in the midst of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation battle, that “for a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real — whether or not she forgets facts, whether or not it’s been made worse or better over time.”

I wonder if Biden still feels that way?

No, Joe has an entirely different viewpoint now, as do Democrats in general. Biden is phony as hell, a lifelong politician.
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Post by OSUBucks Wed May 06, 2020 7:06 pm

ramblinman wrote:Illinois began its stay at home order on March 21.  On that day, there was one death reported due to the virus.  Prior to that point, a total of five deaths had been reported.  

Over the past two days, Illinois has averaged 156 virus related deaths per day.  And we are talking about moving to relaxed restrictions at the end of this month?  WTF?!

Oh, right, silly me.  It was never about deaths and always about mitigating the curve so we don't overburden our healthcare infrastructure.   Rolling Eyes

With 77% of all COVID deaths occurring in individuals aged 65 or older, we'll just let this disease run its course and cull the weak old folks.  Survival of the fittest, right?

You're looking at the wrong stat. As I said previously the death stat will lag behind the more meaningful stat which is the number of new cases. Illinois is gradually testing more people every week. So far this week there have been fewer new cases (closer to 2000) a day than last week when we had a few days that we were closer to 3000 new cases daily. If this continues for a few more days we can say that things are definitely trending down and that things could be opening up before long. Our Governor seems pretty cautious, some might say overly cautious. Restaurants won't be fully open until we hit phase 4 of his plan. Right now we are in phase 2 and some think we might go to phase 3 around the 1st of June, which is opening some businesses (not restaurants) but restricting the number of people.
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Post by BirdWatcher Wed May 06, 2020 7:20 pm

NYGov Cuomo today: "I would take all these numbers now with a grain of salt... What does a 'presumed death' mean, right? We presume it? How do you presume it to be coronavirus? ... I think they’re going to change overtime."

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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 7:26 pm

OSUBucks wrote:
ramblinman wrote:Illinois began its stay at home order on March 21.  On that day, there was one death reported due to the virus.  Prior to that point, a total of five deaths had been reported.  

Over the past two days, Illinois has averaged 156 virus related deaths per day.  And we are talking about moving to relaxed restrictions at the end of this month?  WTF?!

Oh, right, silly me.  It was never about deaths and always about mitigating the curve so we don't overburden our healthcare infrastructure.   Rolling Eyes

With 77% of all COVID deaths occurring in individuals aged 65 or older, we'll just let this disease run its course and cull the weak old folks.  Survival of the fittest, right?

You're looking at the wrong stat. As I said previously the death stat will lag behind the more meaningful stat which is the number of new cases. Illinois is gradually testing more people every week. So far this week there have been fewer new cases (closer to 2000) a day than last week when we had a few days that we were closer to 3000 new cases daily. If this continues for a few more days we can say that things are definitely trending down and that things could be opening up before long. Our Governor seems pretty cautious, some might say overly cautious. Restaurants won't be fully open until we hit phase 4 of his plan. Right now we are in phase 2 and some think we might go to phase 3 around the 1st of June, which is opening some businesses (not restaurants) but restricting the number of people.

If this virus didn't cause some people to require hospitalization and die, then we wouldn't be having any restrictions at all -- or this conversation.  So the death stat is still an important stat to consider.  By the way, if you want to replace the death stat with the daily new cases stat into my original post, it would look like this:  

Illinois began its stay at home order on March 21.  On that day, there were new 168 cases the virus.  Prior to that point, a total of 586 cases had been reported.  

Over the past two days, Illinois has averaged 2,196 new virus cases per day.  And we are talking about moving to relaxed restrictions at the end of this month?  WTF?!

Happy now?

I do understand that you want the number of new cases to be flattening or trending down.  Me too.  But, consider that the number of new cases is completely dependent on the number of daily tests being performed.  In each of the past three days Illinois tested fewer than we tested 11 days ago.  The testing is still woefully inadequate.  When it really ramps up, and it will ramp up to far more than where we are now, what do you think that will do to your daily new cases stat?


Last edited by ramblinman on Wed May 06, 2020 7:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 7:27 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What the hell are you talking about? Our governor and pretty much every lockdown proponent has said at every turn this wasn't about death, but flattening so the healthcare system doesn't get over run.

Are you doubting that?

So, as long as the healthcare system is healthy, the number of deaths is irrelevant to the continued or relaxed restrictions.  Interesting take you have there.

How many daily deaths in Illinois would there have to be before you would change your mind?  Obviously 156 per day is within your comfort zone.
156 people die every day from all sorts of things that are even more preventable than COVID. We as a society have no problem with that and go on like nothing happens. Opioid addiction, gun violence, suicide, alcohol, drug abuse, tobacco, obesity, etc. That's not a personal opinion, that's fact.

And the health care thing isn't from me. That's what the "experts" have said we're trying to do by locking down.
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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 7:39 pm

Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What the hell are you talking about? Our governor and pretty much every lockdown proponent has said at every turn this wasn't about death, but flattening so the healthcare system doesn't get over run.

Are you doubting that?

So, as long as the healthcare system is healthy, the number of deaths is irrelevant to the continued or relaxed restrictions.  Interesting take you have there.

How many daily deaths in Illinois would there have to be before you would change your mind?  Obviously 156 per day is within your comfort zone.
156 people die every day from all sorts of things that are even more preventable than COVID. We as a society have no problem with that and go on like nothing happens. Opioid addiction, gun violence, suicide, alcohol, drug abuse, tobacco, obesity, etc. That's not a personal opinion, that's fact.

The difference, of course, is that you have had decades of acclimating yourself to the risk/reward regarding deaths from gun violence, tobacco, drug abuse, etc. The other difference is that you, me, your neighbor, your grocery store clerk, literally anyone you come in contact with, could be a carrier of this virus and you don't know it. Unlike deaths from tobacco, gun violence, etc. you could be the direct cause of some person dying from this disease. Or, some shmo you come in contact with in the daily course of your life could be the cause of your death. That's not personal opinion. That's fact. And it has happened 2,974 times in this state since March 17.

But again, just for shits and giggles, how many daily virus related deaths would there have to be in this state before you would change your tune? 200? 500? 1000? 5000? Just curious to know what is your tipping point.
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Post by OSUBucks Wed May 06, 2020 8:24 pm

I can understand why some people are scared given the way most of the media are covering this crisis. The last two nights NBC evening news have shown stories of children having severe side effects apparently from this virus. Children getting ill from this virus is very rare but hey if it scares people go ahead and run it.
The odds are very low that HI or myself are going to die from this virus. As of yesterday only 13 fatalities in the county I live in with 190,000 people. I think it's pretty similar in Macon county too. You have to like those odds. One of the Doctors that they have on regularly on MSNBC said last night that the economy shouldn't be opened until everyone is tested. Even if Obama were still President we wouldn't have been prepared to handle this pandemic though I think he would have reacted to it sooner than Trump did and perhaps done a better job overall. It still would have taken more than a few months to test the entire country.
Our economic system is dependent on people going to work. There are small business owners barely hanging on now and we've got to get them back to work as soon as it's reasonably safe to do so. As I've said before a lot of this talk about keeping things shut down all Summer is related to this being en election year. A lot of the folks that badly want Trump gone want to see the economy shut down all Summer. Illinois financial footing has been precarious for years and you would think JBP would be anxious to get the economy running again and maybe he will open things up sometime in June. We will know soon enough.
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 8:33 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:What the hell are you talking about? Our governor and pretty much every lockdown proponent has said at every turn this wasn't about death, but flattening so the healthcare system doesn't get over run.

Are you doubting that?

So, as long as the healthcare system is healthy, the number of deaths is irrelevant to the continued or relaxed restrictions.  Interesting take you have there.

How many daily deaths in Illinois would there have to be before you would change your mind?  Obviously 156 per day is within your comfort zone.
156 people die every day from all sorts of things that are even more preventable than COVID. We as a society have no problem with that and go on like nothing happens. Opioid addiction, gun violence, suicide, alcohol, drug abuse, tobacco, obesity, etc. That's not a personal opinion, that's fact.

The difference, of course, is that you have had decades of acclimating yourself to the risk/reward regarding deaths from gun violence, tobacco, drug abuse, etc.  The other difference is that you, me, your neighbor, your grocery store clerk, literally anyone you come in contact with, could be a carrier of this virus and you don't know it.  Unlike deaths from tobacco, gun violence, etc. you could be the direct cause of some person dying from this disease.  Or, some shmo you come in contact with in the daily course of your life could be the cause of your death.  That's not personal opinion.  That's fact.  And it has happened 2,974 times in this state since March 17.

But again, just for shits and giggles, how many daily virus related deaths would there have to be in this state before you would change your tune?  200?  500?  1000? 5000? Just curious to know what is your tipping point.  
I could be the cause of someone's death, or they could be the cause of mine, every time I get in a car. Somehow I, you, they, we all find a way to sleep at night without turning the world upside down. In fact, the odds are much higher I'll die or kill someone else that way than from corona.

How many a day? I don't know. Like BW said, I think the eventual number is going to be the same. It's just a matter of how long we draw it out for political gain. I think if you could tell me we'll lose 5k a day for a week for a couple weeks as opposed to 10k over 5 months, I'd take the 5k a day. Especially if the extraneous damage was lessened by going the Sweden route.

Death is coming for all of us. No one makes it out alive. You have a different outlook on death after digging a few graves.


Last edited by Head Idiot on Wed May 06, 2020 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 8:44 pm

OSUBucks wrote:I can understand why some people are scared given the way most of the media are covering this crisis. The last two nights NBC evening news have shown stories of children having severe side effects apparently from this virus. Children getting ill from this virus is very rare but hey if it scares people go ahead and run it.
The odds are very low that HI or myself are going to die from this virus. As of yesterday only 13 fatalities in the county I live in with 190,000 people. I think it's pretty similar in Macon county too. You have to like those odds. One of the Doctors that they have on regularly on MSNBC said last night that the economy shouldn't be opened until everyone is tested. Even if Obama were still President we wouldn't have been prepared to handle this pandemic though I think he would have reacted to it sooner than Trump did and perhaps done a better job overall. It still would have taken more than a few months to test the entire country.
Our economic system is dependent on people going to work. There are small business owners barely hanging on now and we've got to get them back to work as soon as it's reasonably safe to do so. As I've said before a lot of this talk about keeping things shut down all Summer is related to this being en election year. A lot of the folks that badly want Trump gone want to see the economy shut down all Summer. Illinois financial footing has been precarious for years and you would think JBP would be anxious to get the economy running again and maybe he will open things up sometime in June. We will know soon enough.
Statistically given my age, race, health history, fitness level and personal choices- no smoking/drugs/drinking, my chances of dying from this are pretty much non existent.
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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 9:01 pm

OSUBucks wrote:I can understand why some people are scared given the way most of the media are covering this crisis. The last two nights NBC evening news have shown stories of children having severe side effects apparently from this virus. Children getting ill from this virus is very rare but hey if it scares people go ahead and run it.

What is not newsworthy about young children getting sick and/or dying from this virus?  Should the media not run those stories and let parents think that their children are immune because of all the coverage that is given to older people being impacted far worse?

OSUBucks wrote:The odds are very low that HI or myself are going to die from this virus. As of yesterday only 13 fatalities in the county I live in with 190,000 people. I think it's pretty similar in Macon county too. You have to like those odds.

Indeed I do like them.  Imagine what they would be if we hadn't had the restrictions.  Imagine what they are going to be when people from neighboring counties or (gasp!) from the northern areas of the state come to yours in droves when your bars and restaurants open up before theirs.  And, while those odds of you dying are very low for you, they are much, much higher for you to be a carrier of the virus (whether you are symptomatic or asymptomatic) and infecting others if you are ignoring the restrictions or if the restrictions are lifted too early.

OSUBucks wrote:Our economic system is dependent on people going to work.

It's even more dependent on there being living and healthy people working and spending money.
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Post by dusty7 Wed May 06, 2020 9:27 pm

ramblinman wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:
ramblinman wrote:Illinois began its stay at home order on March 21.  On that day, there was one death reported due to the virus.  Prior to that point, a total of five deaths had been reported.  

Over the past two days, Illinois has averaged 156 virus related deaths per day.  And we are talking about moving to relaxed restrictions at the end of this month?  WTF?!

Oh, right, silly me.  It was never about deaths and always about mitigating the curve so we don't overburden our healthcare infrastructure.   Rolling Eyes

With 77% of all COVID deaths occurring in individuals aged 65 or older, we'll just let this disease run its course and cull the weak old folks.  Survival of the fittest, right?

It is bad to look at the numbers from this outbreak from a day to day basis, you have to look at the trends.  Yes, yesterday was the highest death count for the state but the 'lag time' for death from COVID -19 is 13 to 21 days, so you have to go back to when they tested positive.  Now, we also need to remember that 13-21 days ago, only people showing symptoms or were at risk were being tested, not like today where asymptomatic individuals are getting tested in some areas.  Also, 90% of the people who have died from this virus had other illnesses and they happened to test positive for COVID-19 so they are counted even though a heart attack, stroke, or other illness is what actually killed them, which inflates the number.  The best number to look at is the Positivity Rate which is starting to trend down and has been for about 14 days

Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%

If you compare the deaths in most of Illinois from 2020 to past years, the overall increase this year is not that significant.  Champaign county has actually had fewer deaths this year in the month of April than the previous two years.  Even in Chicago and Cook County, I do not think the increase is that significant.  We are no where near where New York was, who I guess chose to put Covid positive individuals in nursing homes according to some news outlets today.  The state is not anywhere close reaching a shortage of hospital beds, ICU, or ventilators.  Hell, we just sent 1,000 back to California.  We just shut down the $2.5 million project at McCormick Place that treated 9 individuals.  Yes, keeping part of it open is a smart move, but the impact has not been near what the flawed models suggested back in March.  

The stay at home order and other mitigation efforts have helped and the phased plan that Illinois will implement is deeply flawed in parts but is a step in the right direction.   Here in Kankakee and Southern Will County, we are saddened to be lumped in with Chicago and most of the state will be open for business and we will be stuck in Phase 3 until December or even longer.
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Post by ramblinman Wed May 06, 2020 9:28 pm

Head Idiot wrote:I could be the cause of someone's death, or they could be the cause of mine, every time I get in a car. Somehow I, you, they, we all find a way to sleep at night without turning the world upside down. In fact, the odds are much higher I'll die or kill someone else that way than from corona.

You don't have to die or kill someone else for the odds to be seemingly low relative to the virus.  But, all you need to do is to infect ONE PERSON, and that person can go on and infect and cause the deaths of many, many people.  One person is all it takes.  This is not the freaking flu.  It is far more contagious than that.  God almighty, I don't understand how you or any sentient individuals don't get that. If you do get it, then just say you don't effing care about others and be done with it.

I've asked you twice now how many daily deaths would it take for you to change your tune.  You have either ignored the question or have answered that you don't know.  Based on that, I can only surmise that you don't care.

Head Idiot wrote:How many a day? I don't know. Like BW said, I think the eventual number is going to be the same. It's just a matter of how long we draw it out for political gain. I think if you could tell me we'll lose 5k a day for a week for a couple weeks as opposed to 10k over 5 months, I'd take the 5k a day. Especially if the extraneous damage was lessened by going the Sweden route.
You and BW are terribly misinformed and woefully mistaken if you think that the deaths will be the same whether or not we maintain the restrictions.  The longer we can hold out and maintain social distancing and restrictions on gatherings before a vaccine or an effective treatment are created and made widely available, the fewer lives will be lost.  Period.  The sooner we go back to normal, the more people will become infected, and the more people will die.  Period.

Sweden?  Please.  Their deaths and death rate are far higher than their neighboring Scandinavian countries.
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Post by BirdWatcher Wed May 06, 2020 9:40 pm

OSUBucks wrote:Even if Obama were still President we wouldn't have been prepared to handle this pandemic though I think he would have reacted to it sooner than Trump did and perhaps done a better job overall.

What makes you say that Obama would have done anything sooner?

COVID in 2020
WHO declared "global health emergency" Jan 30
US declared "national health emergency" next day
H1N1 in 2009
WHO declared "health emergency" April 25
US declared "national health emergency" next day

COVID WHO declared a "pandemic" Mar 11, six weeks after "emergency"
            Trump declared a National Emergency two days later
H1N1 WHO declared a "pandemic" Jun 11, eleven weeks after "emergency"
            Obama declared a National Emergency Oct 24,  135 days later.  And 2 months after WHO.

Did Obama "have it under control" before he eventually had to call a National Emergency?  Or was he not paying attention because he was so focused on eviscerating our healthcare system?  We won't really know until the dust has settled on COVID.  Even Gov Cuomo is doubting his numbers

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Post by OSUBucks Wed May 06, 2020 9:49 pm

I don't think anyone on here is saying that we should open back up now. Things could be substantially better in a month from now. Those who are physically high at risk might be better off staying at home for a while once the stay at home order is lifted or anyone else who aren't comfortable going out at first.
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Post by BirdWatcher Wed May 06, 2020 9:51 pm


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Post by OSUBucks Wed May 06, 2020 10:02 pm


WTF? I was debating whether or not I should go shopping for a new truck tomorrow. I think you may have answered that question. I'll still take a mask with me. Laughing
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:I could be the cause of someone's death, or they could be the cause of mine, every time I get in a car. Somehow I, you, they, we all find a way to sleep at night without turning the world upside down. In fact, the odds are much higher I'll die or kill someone else that way than from corona.

You don't have to die or kill someone else for the odds to be seemingly low relative to the virus.  But, all you need to do is to infect ONE PERSON, and that person can go on and infect and cause the deaths of many, many people.  One person is all it takes.  This is not the freaking flu.  It is far more contagious than that.  God almighty, I don't understand how you or any sentient individuals don't get that. If you do get it, then just say you don't effing care about others and be done with it.

I've asked you twice now how many daily deaths would it take for you to change your tune.  You have either ignored the question or have answered that you don't know.  Based on that, I can only surmise that you don't care.

Head Idiot wrote:How many a day? I don't know. Like BW said, I think the eventual number is going to be the same. It's just a matter of how long we draw it out for political gain. I think if you could tell me we'll lose 5k a day for a week for a couple weeks as opposed to 10k over 5 months, I'd take the 5k a day. Especially if the extraneous damage was lessened by going the Sweden route.
You and BW are terribly misinformed and woefully mistaken if you think that the deaths will be the same whether or not we maintain the restrictions.  The longer we can hold out and maintain social distancing and restrictions on gatherings before a vaccine or an effective treatment are created and made widely available, the fewer lives will be lost.  Period.  The sooner we go back to normal, the more people will become infected, and the more people will die.  Period.

Sweden?  Please.  Their deaths and death rate are far higher than their neighboring Scandinavian countries.
And their herd immunity will be there quicker and their death rate and numbers will go drastically down quicker. I would be willing to wager, when it's all said and done, they won't be any worse off than those surrounding them.

And, I answered your question. It depends. I don't particularly want anyone to die, but I can't put a number on it. What is your acceptable number? I mean, we obviously have an acceptable number of deaths for other things like smoking, the flu, driving, etc. Why should this virus be different?

And, the flu is only less deadly and contractable because of herd immunity. Don't believe me? Ask the Native Americans when Europeans came to the new world. Common, everyday diseases that Europeans had herd immunity to decimate them.
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Post by Head Idiot Wed May 06, 2020 10:11 pm


OSUBucks wrote:

WTF? I was debating whether or not I should go shopping for a new truck tomorrow. I think you may have answered that question. I'll still take a mask with me. Laughing
Man, if only someone had posted this exact thing earlier...
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Post by BirdWatcher Wed May 06, 2020 10:45 pm

Head Idiot wrote:Man, if only someone had posted this exact thing earlier...

Yeah, but you posted a Forbes link.. that won't convince a lefty.. you need to post from an NBC site to have any persuasive affect.. Wink

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Post by dusty7 Wed May 06, 2020 11:54 pm

OSUBucks wrote:I don't think anyone on here is saying that we should open back up now. Things could be substantially better in a month from now. Those who are physically high at risk might be better off staying at home for a while once the stay at home order is lifted or anyone else who aren't comfortable going out at first.

Exactly this. Things are better now than they were a month ago and if you look at the averages of 30-50% testing positive, to now only 15%, it looks towards improving in the future.

Those who are at risk or are worried about spread should take the initiative and stay home come June 1. I have 3 parents (all over 70), one grandparent (96), and they are all considered "at-risk" and they even say to everyone to go about their business, we will make the sacrifice and do what we need to do to survive. One individual got it at the nursing home my grandmother is at, they isolated that individual, tested all workers and residents 2 days later, all came back negative. Employees scrub down upon entry and are given a new mask and sanitized face shield on a daily basis.

The problem I have is that the and Lightfoot are creating this fear that if you are just around other people, you will get the virus. What happened to all of the people who were at the house party in Chicago last week? Did any of them test positive? My guess is NO because it has not been covered on the news. This will be the first mothers day since I lost my mother in late February, and the fact that I cannot go see my step-dad who lost his wife (and has been isolated for 7 weeks now), my sisters who lost their mother, and all of my nieces and nephews who lost their grandma, on a day we always celebrated as a family, for a slim chance of getting of giving a virus is very frustrating. I have had little to no contact with anyone other than my wife and my son, so if I congregate with others who have isolated themselves as well, what is the problem?

Also, a friend of ours just had a C-section today and tested positive for Covid-19 two days ago, she was asymptomatic. They told her that she would have to self isolate from the baby for 14 days and the baby would not be able to leave the nursery for 14 days, along with the dad not being able to see the baby for 14 days. They gave her, and the baby a test today....comes back negative. This makes me curious, how many false positives are our there and is the push to say that people who are asymptomatic are the ones spreading the disease.
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Post by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 2:27 am

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