Re: Coronavirus I

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 9:25 am

dusty7 wrote:
It is bad to look at the numbers from this outbreak from a day to day basis, you have to look at the trends. Yes, yesterday was the highest death count for the state but the 'lag time' for death from COVID -19 is 13 to 21 days, so you have to go back to when they tested positive. Now, we also need to remember that 13-21 days ago, only people showing symptoms or were at risk were being tested, not like today where asymptomatic individuals are getting tested in some areas. Also, 90% of the people who have died from this virus had other illnesses and they happened to test positive for COVID-19 so they are counted even though a heart attack, stroke, or other illness is what actually killed them, which inflates the number. The best number to look at is the Positivity Rate which is starting to trend down and has been for about 14 days

Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%

If you compare the deaths in most of Illinois from 2020 to past years, the overall increase this year is not that significant. Champaign county has actually had fewer deaths this year in the month of April than the previous two years. Even in Chicago and Cook County, I do not think the increase is that significant. We are no where near where New York was, who I guess chose to put Covid positive individuals in nursing homes according to some news outlets today. The state is not anywhere close reaching a shortage of hospital beds, ICU, or ventilators. Hell, we just sent 1,000 back to California. We just shut down the $2.5 million project at McCormick Place that treated 9 individuals. Yes, keeping part of it open is a smart move, but the impact has not been near what the flawed models suggested back in March.

The stay at home order and other mitigation efforts have helped and the phased plan that Illinois will implement is deeply flawed in parts but is a step in the right direction. Here in Kankakee and Southern Will County, we are saddened to be lumped in with Chicago and most of the state will be open for business and we will be stuck in Phase 3 until December or even longer.

The positivity rate trending down is clearly more a factor of the increase of healthy individuals being tested negative than it is of there being fewer sick individuals. You may well find a situation where the number of daily new cases goes up to new highs, or near new highs, at the same time as the positivity rate reaches new lows. As the numbers of individuals being tested continue to increase, that positivity trend is going to be misleading until the number of people being tested plateaus and you can compare apples to apples.

As for hospitals not being anywhere close to having a shortage of beds, ventilators, etc., that may be true in your neck of the woods, but not in mine. In mine, 89% of available ICU beds are in use. If that isn't close to having a shortage in the middle of a pandemic, I shudder to think of your definition of close.

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 9:28 am

Head Idiot wrote:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2011/11/controversial-cfs-researcher-arrested-and-jailed

https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-xpm-2011-11-22-ct-nw-chronic-fatigue-scientist-arrest-20111122-story.html

I wonder if she was one of the prisoners released early. Laughing

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 12:14 pm

This is a question I've had for a while, but it seems a good time to ask you and Tee- as two of our more senior members and given all that you've seen in your life, why do you believe authority and government so much?

I mean, pretty much from Kennedy to present, every administration, every branch and every agency has lied repeatedly to the American people and you. Yet, here you both are telling us to listen to those same authorities.

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 12:28 pm

Head Idiot wrote:This is a question I've had for a while, but it seems a good time to ask you and Tee- as two of our more senior members and given all that you've seen in your life, why do you believe authority and government so much?

I mean, pretty much from Kennedy to present, every administration, every branch and every agency has lied repeatedly to the American people and you. Yet, here you both are telling us to listen to those same authorities.

What makes you think I believe authority and government so much? I absolutely disbelieve most of what comes out of Trump's mouth. I disbelieved Nixon. I disbelieved Clinton. I disagreed with Carter, but I didn't disbelieve him.

As it pertains to the corona virus, I am believing public health professionals more than politicians. It so happens that the Illinois Governor is basing his decisions on what his public health experts are advising. The President of our country is believing the "metrics in his head."

I disbelieved Rahm. Disbelieved Blago. Believed Edgar and Thompson to an extent. Believed Paul Simon for the most part but disagreed with his politics at the time.

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 12:36 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:This is a question I've had for a while, but it seems a good time to ask you and Tee- as two of our more senior members and given all that you've seen in your life, why do you believe authority and government so much?

I mean, pretty much from Kennedy to present, every administration, every branch and every agency has lied repeatedly to the American people and you. Yet, here you both are telling us to listen to those same authorities.

What makes you think I believe authority and government so much? I absolutely disbelieve most of what comes out of Trump's mouth. I disbelieved Nixon. I disbelieved Clinton. I disagreed with Carter, but I didn't disbelieve him.

As it pertains to the corona virus, I am believing public health professionals more than politicians. It so happens that the Illinois Governor is basing his decisions on what his public health experts are advising. The President of our country is believing the "metrics in his head."

Where do you think those public health officials get their direction from?

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 12:42 pm

Head Idiot wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:This is a question I've had for a while, but it seems a good time to ask you and Tee- as two of our more senior members and given all that you've seen in your life, why do you believe authority and government so much?

I mean, pretty much from Kennedy to present, every administration, every branch and every agency has lied repeatedly to the American people and you. Yet, here you both are telling us to listen to those same authorities.

What makes you think I believe authority and government so much? I absolutely disbelieve most of what comes out of Trump's mouth. I disbelieved Nixon. I disbelieved Clinton. I disagreed with Carter, but I didn't disbelieve him.

As it pertains to the corona virus, I am believing public health professionals more than politicians. It so happens that the Illinois Governor is basing his decisions on what his public health experts are advising. The President of our country is believing the "metrics in his head."
Where do you think those public health officials get their direction from?

The independent ones that work outside of government don't get their direction from the authority and government that you seemingly disbelieve so much.

It's pretty clear that the President and some (most?) of his public health advisors are in frequent disagreement. Can you think of any of those public health professionals we have been seeing and hearing on a national level who are in lockstep with Trump or who are parroting what he says with respect to what we should be doing to mitigate the effects of this pandemic or with respect to what he says we should be doing (and when) to reopen the country?

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 12:51 pm

I'm really not trying to be difficult, but can you give me an example of a public health official that works outside the framework of government and their funding?

And yes, I distrust the government. As I I have repeatedly said, they lie. About everything. They do not have your best interests in mind.

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 1:10 pm

Head Idiot wrote:I'm really not trying to be difficult, but can you give me an example of a public health official that works outside the framework of government and their funding?

And yes, I distrust the government. As I I have repeatedly said, they lie. About everything. They do not have your best interests in mind.

By their nature, many (but not all) public health officials are working for government agencies. There are many public health professionals who work for NGOs and in higher education who really don't answer to government (unless they are researchers with government funded projects). There are many epidemiologists who work in hospital settings.

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 1:24 pm

So, which independent ones are the ones you are taking direction from?

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 1:50 pm

Head Idiot wrote:So, which independent ones are the ones you are taking direction from?

Am I not allowed to form opinions based on public health officials who work for government simply because your level of distrust in government is greater than mine? Fauci, Birx, and Adams all work at the pleasure of the President who wants to "liberate" shut down states and who is encouraging protesters who want to reopen the economy. I don't see them parroting Trump's position with respect to reopening the country. In fact, they have quite clearly been at odds with him on these matters.

Robert Murphy is a professor of infectious diseases at Northwestern's med school. I see him on WGN news almost every morning for the past several weeks.

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 2:15 pm

ramblinman wrote:
Head Idiot wrote:So, which independent ones are the ones you are taking direction from?

Am I not allowed to form opinions based on public health officials who work for government simply because your level of distrust in government is greater than mine? Fauci, Birx, and Adams all work at the pleasure of the President who wants to "liberate" shut down states and who is encouraging protesters who want to reopen the economy. I don't see them parroting Trump's position with respect to reopening the country. In fact, they have quite clearly been at odds with him on these matters.

Robert Murphy is a professor of infectious diseases at Northwestern's med school. I see him on WGN news almost every morning for the past several weeks.

You are the one who said you believe public health officials that don't work for the government. I just wanted to know which ones they were.

by BirdWatcher Thu May 07, 2020 2:25 pm

ramblinman wrote:It's pretty clear that the President and some (most?) of his public health advisors are in frequent disagreement.

Do you or have you ever worked in a large organization? That's the status quo.

In my experience, the engineers will propose the solution that requires the least engineering changes.
The marketers will propose the solution that makes selling easier.
The purchasing guys always want to go with last year's (easy to buy) design.
Yada yada yada....

Fauci & Birx have the best medical solution (probably). But it's not just a medical problem.... hence, politics.

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 3:17 pm

BirdWatcher wrote:
ramblinman wrote:It's pretty clear that the President and some (most?) of his public health advisors are in frequent disagreement.

Do you or have you ever worked in a large organization? That's the status quo.

In my experience, the engineers will propose the solution that requires the least engineering changes.
The marketers will propose the solution
that makes selling easier.
The purchasing guys always want to go with last year's (easy to buy) design.
Yada yada yada....

Fauci & Birx have the best medical solution (probably). But it's not just a medical problem.... hence, politics.

Simply because governments and leaders lie does not mean that they lie about everything. I take what I hear and see with a healthy grain of salt. In the case of this administration, and the virus task force in particular, if you asked me who is least likely to lie about the virus situation and when it is appropriate to reopen the states, Fauci and Birx would be at or near the top of my list. The President, Vice President, Kushner, et al would be at or near the opposite end of that lie array.

by Head Idiot Thu May 07, 2020 3:50 pm

So, how do you discern who or when they're lying? If they all have the capacity to lie, and all do lie, how do you know when they're not?

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 5:11 pm

Head Idiot wrote:So, how do you discern who or when they're lying? If they all have the capacity to lie, and all do lie, how do you know when they're not?

You don't know all the time. But, often, most critically thinking and moderately intelligent people know when something is a bald face lie or a half truth.

For example, in response to questions and criticisms about the testing debacle in our country, our President has been quite fond of saying lately that no other country has tested more people than we have in the U.S. Indeed, he touts it as a success factor in the way that his administration has handled the crisis. While it is fact that we have tested more than any other country, it is also fact that we are the third most populous country in the world. These facts combine to result in 42 other countries/territories that have tested more people as a percentage of their populations than has the USA. In terms of tests as a percentage of population, the US is behind countries like Belarus, Slovenia, Latvia, and Estonia. Trump knows that we are lagging in this area, yet he continues to tout the half truth. Trump also knows that his base is all too eager to swallow hook, line, and sinker any half truth that he throws out there as bait.

by dusty7 Thu May 07, 2020 5:37 pm

Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%
5/7 - 14.77%

I would say we have reached the plateau.

by ramblinman Thu May 07, 2020 6:00 pm

dusty7 wrote:Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%
5/7 - 14.77%

I would say we have reached the plateau.

Seeing as how today we had the fourth highest daily total of new cases (and the highest number of the last four reported daily totals), what is the basis for your assertion?

You do realize, don't you, that if you were to apply a positivity rate of 10% to 50,000 tests, that it would result in roughly double the number of new cases that we had today?

by BirdWatcher Thu May 07, 2020 6:17 pm

ramblinman wrote:
BirdWatcher wrote:
ramblinman wrote:It's pretty clear that the President and some (most?) of his public health advisors are in frequent disagreement.

Do you or have you ever worked in a large organization? That's the status quo.

In my experience, the engineers will propose the solution that requires the least engineering changes.
The marketers will propose the solution
that makes selling easier.
The purchasing guys always want to go with last year's (easy to buy) design.
Yada yada yada....

Fauci & Birx have the best medical solution (probably). But it's not just a medical problem.... hence, politics.

Simply because governments and leaders lie does not mean that they lie about everything.

I'm not talking about lying. I'm talking experts in different areas having different priorities. Do you want the death rate at ZERO? Fine. Close all the highways, save 50,000 people. I'm sure Fauci would agree that this is an absolutely surefire way to save 50k lives. The Secretary of Commerce would probably have a different opinion. The Secretary of Transportation would probably be opposed, since his career is based on highway travel.

by BirdWatcher Thu May 07, 2020 6:19 pm

ramblinman wrote:....most critically thinking and moderately intelligent people know when something is a bald face lie or a half truth.

Sadly, most people believe they're in the "critically thinking" and "moderately intelligent" group.... when they're not.

by dusty7 Fri May 08, 2020 12:04 pm

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:
It is bad to look at the numbers from this outbreak from a day to day basis, you have to look at the trends. Yes, yesterday was the highest death count for the state but the 'lag time' for death from COVID -19 is 13 to 21 days, so you have to go back to when they tested positive. Now, we also need to remember that 13-21 days ago, only people showing symptoms or were at risk were being tested, not like today where asymptomatic individuals are getting tested in some areas. Also, 90% of the people who have died from this virus had other illnesses and they happened to test positive for COVID-19 so they are counted even though a heart attack, stroke, or other illness is what actually killed them, which inflates the number. The best number to look at is the Positivity Rate which is starting to trend down and has been for about 14 days

Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%

If you compare the deaths in most of Illinois from 2020 to past years, the overall increase this year is not that significant. Champaign county has actually had fewer deaths this year in the month of April than the previous two years. Even in Chicago and Cook County, I do not think the increase is that significant. We are no where near where New York was, who I guess chose to put Covid positive individuals in nursing homes according to some news outlets today. The state is not anywhere close reaching a shortage of hospital beds, ICU, or ventilators. Hell, we just sent 1,000 back to California. We just shut down the $2.5 million project at McCormick Place that treated 9 individuals. Yes, keeping part of it open is a smart move, but the impact has not been near what the flawed models suggested back in March.

The stay at home order and other mitigation efforts have helped and the phased plan that Illinois will implement is deeply flawed in parts but is a step in the right direction. Here in Kankakee and Southern Will County, we are saddened to be lumped in with Chicago and most of the state will be open for business and we will be stuck in Phase 3 until December or even longer.

The positivity rate trending down is clearly more a factor of the increase of healthy individuals being tested negative than it is of there being fewer sick individuals. You may well find a situation where the number of daily new cases goes up to new highs, or near new highs, at the same time as the positivity rate reaches new lows. As the numbers of individuals being tested continue to increase, that positivity trend is going to be misleading until the number of people being tested plateaus and you can compare apples to apples.

As for hospitals not being anywhere close to having a shortage of beds, ventilators, etc., that may be true in your neck of the woods, but not in mine. In mine, 89% of available ICU beds are in use. If that isn't close to having a shortage in the middle of a pandemic, I shudder to think of your definition of close.

Of course as you test more, fewer people will test positive and there will be an increase in the number of positive cases, I completely understand that. Isn't the goal to test as many people as we possibly can to identify who needs to be isolated and who doesn't? I think almost all of the numbers we are being given are misleading. The total deaths by Covid-19 is highly inflated and many coroners are starting to question why they are putting CV-19 as the key cause of death where obviously other causes were at play.

If I have a cold and die of a heart attack, what is my cause of death? The heart attack, well in the case of CV-19, if you have a heart attack and have CV-19, it is CV-19 that goes on the death certificate, which severely inflates the numbers.

As for the positivity, now if an individual in a house tests positive, all other individuals in the house are counted in the positivity rate without even being tested.

You an break down the numbers any way shape or form but I believe that we are only being told the numbers that make this situation look worse than it really is. Look at Europe, Asia, etc., the worst is behind us for the time being. 13.2 million new unemployed and the estimates are 50 - 75% of small businesses in Illinois will close for what is mostly a Chicago problem. I get your worry but if the rest of the state opens and Chicago is mostly closed down, who is going to travel to Chicago? It is time to start rolling back the stay at home order and let people be responsible for stopping the spread. Yes the hospital bed issue may be grim up in your part but not in the rest of the state. I'm not saying we open fully but at least to a point where family owned business can have some success and people can go about their daily lives.

by ramblinman Fri May 08, 2020 1:39 pm

dusty7 wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:
It is bad to look at the numbers from this outbreak from a day to day basis, you have to look at the trends. Yes, yesterday was the highest death count for the state but the 'lag time' for death from COVID -19 is 13 to 21 days, so you have to go back to when they tested positive. Now, we also need to remember that 13-21 days ago, only people showing symptoms or were at risk were being tested, not like today where asymptomatic individuals are getting tested in some areas. Also, 90% of the people who have died from this virus had other illnesses and they happened to test positive for COVID-19 so they are counted even though a heart attack, stroke, or other illness is what actually killed them, which inflates the number. The best number to look at is the Positivity Rate which is starting to trend down and has been for about 14 days

Positivity Rates Source - http://dph.illinois.gov/covid19
Overall Rate - 18.88%
4/24 - 54.04%
4/25 - 31.92%
4/26 - 22.74%
4/27 - 21.61%
4/28 - 13.76%
4/29 - 18.80%
4/30 - 20.21%
5/1 - 21.11%
5/2 - 16.1%
5/3 - 19.69%
5/4 - 12.05%
5/5 - 15.33%
5/6 - 15.15%

If you compare the deaths in most of Illinois from 2020 to past years, the overall increase this year is not that significant. Champaign county has actually had fewer deaths this year in the month of April than the previous two years. Even in Chicago and Cook County, I do not think the increase is that significant. We are no where near where New York was, who I guess chose to put Covid positive individuals in nursing homes according to some news outlets today. The state is not anywhere close reaching a shortage of hospital beds, ICU, or ventilators. Hell, we just sent 1,000 back to California. We just shut down the $2.5 million project at McCormick Place that treated 9 individuals. Yes, keeping part of it open is a smart move, but the impact has not been near what the flawed models suggested back in March.

The stay at home order and other mitigation efforts have helped and the phased plan that Illinois will implement is deeply flawed in parts but is a step in the right direction. Here in Kankakee and Southern Will County, we are saddened to be lumped in with Chicago and most of the state will be open for business and we will be stuck in Phase 3 until December or even longer.

The positivity rate trending down is clearly more a factor of the increase of healthy individuals being tested negative than it is of there being fewer sick individuals. You may well find a situation where the number of daily new cases goes up to new highs, or near new highs, at the same time as the positivity rate reaches new lows. As the numbers of individuals being tested continue to increase, that positivity trend is going to be misleading until the number of people being tested plateaus and you can compare apples to apples.

As for hospitals not being anywhere close to having a shortage of beds, ventilators, etc., that may be true in your neck of the woods, but not in mine. In mine, 89% of available ICU beds are in use. If that isn't close to having a shortage in the middle of a pandemic, I shudder to think of your definition of close.

Of course as you test more, fewer people will test positive and there will be an increase in the number of positive cases, I completely understand that. Isn't the goal to test as many people as we possibly can to identify who needs to be isolated and who doesn't? I think almost all of the numbers we are being given are misleading. The total deaths by Covid-19 is highly inflated and many coroners are starting to question why they are putting CV-19 as the key cause of death where obviously other causes were at play.

If I have a cold and die of a heart attack, what is my cause of death? The heart attack, well in the case of CV-19, if you have a heart attack and have CV-19, it is CV-19 that goes on the death certificate, which severely inflates the numbers.

As for the positivity, now if an individual in a house tests positive, all other individuals in the house are counted in the positivity rate without even being tested.

You an break down the numbers any way shape or form but I believe that we are only being told the numbers that make this situation look worse than it really is. Look at Europe, Asia, etc., the worst is behind us for the time being. 13.2 million new unemployed and the estimates are 50 - 75% of small businesses in Illinois will close for what is mostly a Chicago problem. I get your worry but if the rest of the state opens and Chicago is mostly closed down, who is going to travel to Chicago? It is time to start rolling back the stay at home order and let people be responsible for stopping the spread. Yes the hospital bed issue may be grim up in your part but not in the rest of the state. I'm not saying we open fully but at least to a point where family owned business can have some success and people can go about their daily lives.

Not trying to be a dick (more than usual), but can you please directly answer my question asking you to explain the basis of your earlier assertion that we have reached the plateau?

With respect to your response above, will you please cite your sources? Like for example, where you say if one person in a household tests positive then all other individuals in that household are considered positive without being tested? How do you know this? Or if a person dies from a heart attack who also has COVID 19 and the cause of death is COVID 19 and not the heart attack? What is your source? And where you say that the Covid deaths are highly inflated and that coroners are questioning why they are putting COVID19 as the key cause of death? Source please.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/

BTW, in the vast majority of deaths, coroners are not responsible for reporting the causes of death. That job falls to attending physicians. Coroners can report a cause of death where there is no attending physician, and they can confirm or change a reported cause of death after performing an autopsy. Generally, causes of death are reported to coroners where the cause of death involves a public health communicable disease. In very few cases, coroners are called upon to confirm/investigate the original physician reported cause of death. Source: CDC handbook for medical certification of death

by OSUBucks Fri May 08, 2020 2:38 pm

If the DNC was smart they would pressure Biden to drop out but I doubt that happens. During the Democrat debates there were some younger, more talented candidates there that could beat Trump. While Biden leads now it is close and it's not at all certain that he beats Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/1996-court-document-tara-reade-told-of-harassment-in-bidens-office/ar-BB13Lnnb

Also I'm hearing today that unless we see a spike in the number of new cases Illinois will move to phase 3 of the Governor's reopening plan on May 29. cheers

by dusty7 Fri May 08, 2020 2:42 pm

Coroner Article Source:
https://www.countryherald.com/community/kankakee-coroners-report-raises-questions-if-covid-19-deaths-are-labeled-correctly/

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

https://www.thv11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/arkansas-coroner-answers-questions-surrounding-reporting-covid-19-deaths/91-7ab1163f-ec4d-4d0f-a871-a59302bee014

by ging Fri May 08, 2020 4:06 pm

just throwing this out there into the "numbers debate":

i've read more than a few people (not necessarily here) say that the number of covid19 deaths are no worse than "a bad year for the regular flu". these folks openly question the accuracy of the number of covid19 deaths (saying they are inflated) but readily accept the number of "regular" flu-related deaths as being accurate.

by OSUBucks Fri May 08, 2020 4:27 pm

Hospitals do receive a larger disbursement from Medicare if COVID-19 is listed as cause of death. Are hospitals overreporting COVID-19 deaths because of this fact. Maybe, but I can't say for sure. There are some people who think the COVID-19 deaths are being underreported. I don't have a strong opinion either way. I do know that the number of positive cases is much, much higher than is being reported.
Not trying to sound insensitive but many of those killed by this virus didn't have a lot of time left regardless. They were elderly folks and many of them had COPD or heart disease or both. It's still a sad situation when families lose a parent or grandparent regardless of age though.

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