Coronavirus III

Oh no... NPR reporting a drastic drop in death rate from COVID- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

dusty7 wrote:Oh no... NPR reporting a drastic drop in death rate from COVID- https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

Yep, this virus has mutated multiple times since the onset and this latest version isn't as lethal. It can still kill but if you're young or middle aged in reasonably decent health the chances of this virus killing you are extremely low.

For Tuesday October 21 statewide positivity is 5.7%. Statewide COVID19 hospitalizations are 2338.

The BonaxNOW test that IDPH once said was too unreliable to include in the daily count is now being distributed to local health departments.

This test can be used to identify someone as positive but cannot be used to clear students or workers to go back to work.

Big jumps on numbers at state run facilities such as Veterans Homes and Developmental Centers and nursing homes. I would guess those residents are very upset with the closing of bars and restaurants.

At least in Kankakee, 100% of new hospitalizations are from nursing homes and over 82 years of age.

dusty7 wrote:
At least in Kankakee, 100% of new hospitalizations are from nursing homes and over 82 years of age.  

Macon County has had 52 deaths. 42 of them have been older than 70. All 52 have been over 50.

My wife brought up a good point..

If you are in a state run institution, say prison, jail, or other institution where you are removed from society, why are those numbers included in our positivity rate? Those individuals are not out and about in the community spreading the disease.

I also came across an interview with both a Dr. (cant find the link for the Dr but it was on Twitter) and a State Senator stating that we need to move beyond using the Positivity Rate as an end all be all for mitigations. The most important metric now is hospitalizations and that should guide us in the mitigation efforts.

If people are simply getting mildly sick, which is the new trend with the mutation of this virus, a positive test is not as dire as it was back in April and May. We have seen an uptick in hospitalizations in the past few weeks but hospitals in Illinois are nowhere close to being overrun with COVID patients in ICU, at least as of yesterday.

https://capitolfax.com/2020/10/20/republican-state-senator-says-state-mitigations-should-be-based-on-hospitalizations-not-positivity-rates/

Those wives can be awfully smart coach! . I’d tend to agree with this. We have a teacher on a 10 day quarantine right now for an outdoor contact that tested positive. The person in question literally felt fine and woke up one morning with a stuffy nose, scratchy throat (which could easily be allergies at any time of year), had trouble tasting their breakfast, which is why they went to get tested, and tested positive. The next day felt completely fine and still is. That was over the weekend. The person in question said they’d have never gotten tested if it weren’t for the taste thing. I think these types of cases are more common than we think. Now, I also realize that not all people are going to react this way and that the carriers of this who remain asymptomatic are a huge concern; but I continue to find these types of stories. Crap, I could have had corona 10-15 times this year already this year.

dusty7 wrote:

If you are in a state run institution, say prison, jail, or other institution where you are removed from society, why are those numbers included in our positivity rate?  Those individuals are not out and about in the community spreading the disease.  

There are thousands of people who WORK in those institutions who are exposed to the people who live in them. Those workers are indeed out and about in society. They may contract the virus from those folks who are institutionalized. They may also be asymptomatic and unknowingly spreading the virus.

dusty7 wrote:I also came across an interview with both a Dr. (cant find the link for the Dr but it was on Twitter) and a State Senator stating that we need to move beyond using the Positivity Rate as an end all be all for mitigations.  The most important metric now is hospitalizations and that should guide us in the mitigation efforts.  

I was never a fan of positivity. From the start, I felt that the metric was meaningless without a relatively static number of tests being administered. What do positivity trends really mean if the numbers of tests being administered vary so widely? Positivity represents the percentage of tests resulting in a confirmed case. If XYZ County in rural Illinois has a positivity rate of 8%, that is very different from a similar positivity rate in Cook County with a population density a bazillion times that of XYZ County.

In four of the last seven days, we have seen daily numbers of confirmed cases in Illinois that are more than the highest daily number of new cases from when daily new cases were spiking in May. However, the positivity looks much better now than it did back then because we are testing more people now. WAY more. I argued this point last spring, but back then folks here thought the positivity metric was the bee's knees.

For me, it's not about hospitalizations, although we do need to keep an eye on that. In the short history of this virus, the one constant has been hot spots. It flares up in one area, and then it cools down and flares up in another area. For me, the metric that should influence mitigation efforts more than any other metric should be the percentage of confirmed cases per 10,000 population. More than any other metric, that is going to tell you the PREVALANCE of the virus in a given county, region, state, etc.

The people in prison are at a far greater risk of catching it from us than us from them.

Head Idiot wrote:The people in prison are at a far greater risk of catching it from us than us from them.

That’s interesting...because of your contact with the outside world obviously.

lefty120 wrote:

Head Idiot wrote:The people in prison are at a far greater risk of catching it from us than us from them.

That’s interesting...because of your contact with the outside world obviously.

Yes. We have yet to have an inmate test positive. We've had probably 2 dozen staff quarantine (for legitimate reasons- far more to abuse the system and just get time off) and about 6 or 7 test positive.

Quote from today's stats..

"As of Wednesday night, 2,463 Illinoisians were hospitalized with COVID-19"

According to IDPH website:

Total COVID + PUI in Hospitals not in ICU: 1,938
COVID + PUI patients in ICU: 525
Total COVID + PUI in Hospital: 2,463
Percent of All Hospital Beds in use that are occupied by COVID+PUI patients: 10%

A PUI is defined as a person under investigation meaning they have not received results from a COVID test. Aren't all patients in the hospital tested for COVID before any procedure or after being admitted to the hospital?  So why does IDPH automatically all assume these individuals all have COVID? Why are they being counted as a COVID patient when there is no evidence of COVID? So you go to the hospital, you are tested, and you are assumed positive until proven negative?

Maybe I'm wrong but this seems a bit misleading.

From IDPH pertaining to Anti-gen tests:

Previously, due to the limited number of antigen tests and limited information about antigen test accuracy, antigen tests were not included in the total number (which comprised less than 1% of total tests performed). In August, the national case definition for a probable case changed and no longer required clinical symptoms to accompany a positive antigen test. An antigen tests alone is enough to be considered a probable case. With the updated definition and antigen tests becoming widely available, IDPH made the decision to include both molecular and antigen tests in its total number of tests.

Are these Anti-gen tests only administered to those with symptoms? Because if they are administered to people without symptoms, a positive test alone does not determine if you are positive but yet they are included in the numbers.

JBP also owns a lot stake in Abbott labs which produces this test.

ramblinman wrote:I was never a fan of positivity......If XYZ County in rural Illinois has a positivity rate of 8%, that is very different from a similar positivity rate in Cook County with a population density a bazillion times that of XYZ County.

Sounds like we need a Multiplier!

For Thursday October 22 statewide positivity is 5.7%. It didn't go up today. Statewide COVID hospitalizations are 2463, up from yesterday.

Saw this chart on the outbreaks that have occurred in DuPage county. Interesting to see where the virus has spread.

Schools, bars and restaurants coming in at 18 of the 235 for 7.6%, but remember, they're 2 of the most dangerous places according to JB and his science.

 “When you look at the top 3 places that come up over and over, region to region, statewide, it comes up as people’s workplace, it comes up as school, it comes up as restaurants and bars. We’re not going to not have people go to school,” said Dr. Ezike.

https://fox17.com/news/local/number-of-covid-19-cases-traced-back-to-bars-restaurants-less-than-1-of-nashville-total-according-to-metro-health-department-numbers

Head Idiot wrote:Schools, bars and restaurants coming in at 18 of the 235 for 7.6%, but remember, they're 2 of the most dangerous places according to JB and his science.

 “When you look at the top 3 places that come up over and over, region to region, statewide, it comes up as people’s workplace, it comes up as school, it comes up as restaurants and bars. We’re not going to not have people go to school,” said Dr. Ezike.

https://fox17.com/news/local/number-of-covid-19-cases-traced-back-to-bars-restaurants-less-than-1-of-nashville-total-according-to-metro-health-department-numbers

They are obviously not using science and data to create their policies. They simply hoping people do not looking into the information beyond what they tell us.

dusty7 wrote:
They are obviously not using science and data to create their policies. They simply hoping people do not looking into the information beyond what they tell us.

But...

During his daily press briefing on Tuesday, Gov. Pritzker was asked if bars and restaurants were causing the spread of COVID-19 in Illinois.

Here’s what the governor said:

“Yes, and there are pages and pages and pages of studies from around the world, from around the United States, not to mention articles…I mean, we’re literally talking about piles of these studies that show that bars and restaurants are spreading locations, significant spreading locations.”

Head Idiot wrote:

dusty7 wrote:
They are obviously not using science and data to create their policies. They simply hoping people do not looking into the information beyond what they tell us.

But...

During his daily press briefing on Tuesday, Gov. Pritzker was asked if bars and restaurants were causing the spread of COVID-19 in Illinois.

Here’s what the governor said:

“Yes, and there are pages and pages and pages of studies from around the world, from around the United States, not to mention articles…I mean, we’re literally talking about piles of these studies that show that bars and restaurants are spreading locations, significant spreading locations.”

Man, he's starting to sound like Trump...highly doubt he could introduce any of these studies. Side note; have a couple businesses in town that basically said on Facebook that they can't afford any type of fine or forced total shutdown if they get caught so they're just doing drive up and carry out service...the number of people in our community who are roasting them on Facebook and encouraging people not to go to their business is unreal. These people are longtime business owners and community members and I personally know 2 of them, they're good supportive people to our town...that's where we are at.

If restaurants were allowed to relax regulations they wouldn't fill up with customers, at least according to a lot of economists. The reason for that is because too many people are scared. Gee I wonder why so many are scared, it wouldn't have anything to do with the media would it?

OSUBucks wrote:If restaurants were allowed to relax regulations they wouldn't fill up with customers, at least according to a lot of economists. The reason for that is because too many people are scared. Gee I wonder why so many are scared, it wouldn't have anything to do with the media would it?

I told the story of how the woman at the book store a couple weeks ago said that was her first foray into the wild since March.

I just can't imagine being that scared of anything.

For Friday October 23 statewide positivity actually dropped slightly to 5.6%. 2493 hospitalizations slightly up from yesterday.

Sports are not a significant spreader of COVID.

https://www.wissports.net/news_article/show/1129136