Coronavirus I

ramblinman wrote:

tps wrote:i'm just spitballin' here - maybe Trump heard some talk about this or something similar? 
https://riordanclinic.org/what-we-do/ultraviolet-blood-irradiation/
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151116005213/en/Lights-On%21-Santa-Barbara-Naturopathic-Doctor-Studies  
or this? 
https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04343742 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine_dioxide
I feel sorry for you if you can't contain your powerful dislike for someone or if you live in paralyzing fear. If you go outside and get some sunshine, it will change your disposition, if you let it. 
calm breeds calm.

I give you an A for Trump apologetics effort.

Those all might be plausible possibilities, but he already is claiming he said those things sarcastically (after his staff initially claimed his words were taken out of context).

Hey, thanks for the props. I'm thinking you might be one I am feeling sorry for...

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/prtizker-illinois-students-and-teachers-should-prepare-for-elearning-use-in-the-fall/2262144/

I found this line particularly interesting.

Pricksker wrote:Just in case and also because I think that in the future, we'll be using E-Learning more and more, even in the absence of a pandemic along with in-person learning.

Mrs BW and two neighbors made a clandestine visit to the hair dresser's house for perms & cuts. I couldn't go and scheduled to go to her house on Saturday, but TN lifted some of it's restrictions Friday (day use state parks, restaurants 50% capacity, etc.) and she said "screw it," and opened her shop in town. The state board had said she could do "home visits" but she felt that she had better control of cleaning/sanitation in her shop than lugging stuff from place to place. My cut looks fantastic, thanks for asking.....

So I stopped at the micro-brew to fill the growler and the owner said they were under restaurant regs now: 6 persons or less per table, tables 6+ feet apart, <50% capacity, no barstools. She told me she's not allowed to hire live music, but if some guy with a "real cute haircut" starts playing and singing at his 6-person table, she won't kick him out.

I talked to a friend over the weekend who knows someone who works in the Pritzker administration. The vibe she’s hearing is that Pritzker is thinking of shutting down thru June. I don’t think he will but if he does it’s going to get ugly around here.
I had CNN and MSN on for just a brief amount of time today and they both had guests on arguing against opening the economy soon. It’s all about beating Trump.

OSUBucks wrote: I had CNN and MSN on...

The first step is admitting you have a problem....

OSUBucks wrote:I had CNN and MSN on for just a brief amount of time today and they both had guests on arguing against opening the economy soon. It’s all about beating Trump.

Were they medical or infection professionals or political people?

24 cases in cass county in 8 days. we think........

according to ccdph we have 24. idph has us at 27.

OSUBucks wrote: The vibe she’s hearing is that Pritzker is thinking of shutting down thru June.

assuming you mean (or she meant) the END of june?

ging wrote:

OSUBucks wrote: The vibe she’s hearing is that Pritzker is thinking of shutting down thru June.

assuming you mean (or she meant) the END of june?

Yes. I think by end of May this round of the virus will be about done. I can't say that with 100% certainty though.

Teetime wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:I had CNN and MSN on for just a brief amount of time today and they both had guests on arguing against opening the economy soon. It’s all about beating Trump.

Were they medical or infection professionals or political people?

I don't remember their names now or what organizations they were affiliated with. Dr Birx said something to the effect yesterday that social distancing will continue through the Summer. I would hope that she doesn't mean that we will be in the same situation that we are in now. I could still see some limits such as large gatherings of hundreds of people but who knows.

I would love to witness a panel discussion of public health experts and non-health business experts who are adept at translating trends into future realities.  The sole question for the panel is "What will life be like in 3, 6, and 12 months and post vaccine?"  Not looking for a debate from these people, just their answers to the question.

I keep hearing that life is not going back to normal until a vaccine is developed and huge numbers of people are inoculated.  What I want to know is how is it going to be different?  

Will we all be required to wear masks when we are out in public?  Today, I watched Dr. Robert Murphy, a professor of infectious disease at Northwestern University`s Feinberg School of Medicine on a morning TV news program.  He was saying that we should all be wearing masks for at least several months AFTER the number of daily deaths get down in the single digits.  

Will we be limited in terms of the size gatherings we can have?  What is going to be the number?  How many inside?  How many outside?  What about travel?  Are the days over of being squeezed like sardines into airplanes, buses, and subway trains?  Are cruise ships going to be mothballed for the next 18 months?

What about the events sector of our economy?  Conventions?  Weddings?  Charity galas and auctions?  

How about packing hundreds and thousands of people into places of worship for religious services?

What about schools?  Will class sizes be limited to between 10 and 15 in each room?  Or will class size vary based on classroom space?  Will seating arrangements be affected?  What about lunch in the cafeteria?  Will everyone in school have to wear masks?  What about colleges with their dorms and large lecture halls?  If students have to wear masks in school, then what about sports?  

What about nightlife?  Bars and clubs?

Entertainment industry?  Movie theaters?  Live theater?  Sporting events?  Rock concerts?
Symphony orchestras?  

Once a vaccine is discovered, will people need to show evidence of immunization before being granted admission to rock concerts, sporting events, bars, cruise ships, planes, etc? Will we all be issued immunization ID cards?

You raise some good questions. I'm hoping that when I get my flu shot before next Winter I can get one for this virus but we may well be still be in the trial phase of testing at that time. It could well be Spring 2021 before vaccines are available. I wouldn't be surprised that when restaurants open back up they won't be allowed full capacity, at least in the beginning. There's just a lot of unknowns at this point.

Last week state Rep Darren Bailey sued our Governor over his stay at home order. Just a while ago a Clay county judge agreed that the stay at home order is no longer allowed to stand. I'm ready to exercise my freedom as soon as it is safe to do so but I think the statewide stay at home order has saved a bunch of lives. We'll see where this goes from here. I'm guessing that the state Attorney General will appeal this directly to the Illinois Supreme Court, that is if the Judge made his ruling based on the Governor's order being unconstitutional.

I can understand why people in certain parts of the state are protesting, all be it not always openly, the stay at home order.  I go back and forth on the thing...one minute I think this is going to calm down and we will be back to some semblance of normalcy, albeit with some guidelines, by the fall.  In the next minute, I see us starting the school year E Learning and cancelling all Fall sports and activities.  Honestly, if you want to read between the lines of how this has been going, I could see us not being back in school until after what would be our winter break...if and only if, they've either A. found and approved a vaccine (which if you do any reading at all, sounds like it's at least 12-18 months away), or B.  found some way that almost universally treats people who get it.  Right now, not only are we a long ways from getting a vaccine, we are also still shooting in the dark as to how to treat people...that's scary.

I think we should have one good antiviral treatment ready to go by fall. Typically getting a vaccine takes close to 18 months but we're on a fast track to cut that time down and I'm hopeful. Economically I'm not sure how Illinois is going to get by if the economy is shut down for 4-5 more months. I think E Learning is being looked at as a possible way to save the state some money in the big challenge that is coming our way. I don't see Trump eager to bail out what he has called poorly run (Democrat) states. Illinois can counter that they send several billion dollars more a year to Washington than they get back in assistance. If Biden wins he might be more willing to help bail Illinois out but that's just speculation on my part.

What if there is never a vaccine or one that has a very low success rate?

OSUBucks wrote:I'm hoping that when I get my flu shot before next Winter I can get one for this virus

The last ten years I worked my company offered free flu shots every fall. I never got one. I'm not anti-vax, just lazy and didn't want a sore arm for a 50/50 shot at stopping something. After ALL THE NUMBERS are tallied, what if Covid-19 is the same virality and morbidity as the flu? Do you get a shot? What if the Covid-19 shot is less effective than the regular flu shot? What if Covid-20 is not defeated by the Covid-19 shot? Or Covid-21?

And the bigger question, what will the deep state come up with in 2024 when Trump runs for his third term?

BirdWatcher wrote:

OSUBucks wrote:I'm hoping that when I get my flu shot before next Winter I can get one for this virus

The last ten years I worked my company offered free flu shots every fall.  I never got one.  I'm not anti-vax, just lazy and didn't want a sore arm for a 50/50 shot at stopping something.   After ALL THE NUMBERS are tallied, what if Covid-19 is the same virality and morbidity as the flu?  Do you get a shot?  What if the Covid-19 shot is less effective than the regular flu shot?  What if Covid-20 is not defeated by the Covid-19 shot?  Or Covid-21?

And the bigger question, what will the deep state come up with in 2024 when Trump runs for his third term?  

Well on an average year the flu vaccine lessens your chances of contracting the flu by 50%, some years more than that and occasionally a little less.
The COVID-19 Pandemic is the testbed for the next generation of vaccine technologies. Right now our best hopes IMO lie with Johnson & Johnson's approach to the problem. They are using a non infectious cold virus to shuttle DNA for an antigen into the body's cells. If this works it would be a game changer for the future in that they could test vaccines quickly and not have to rely on cells to manufacture vaccines. IF this is successful J&J are committed to providing a billion vaccines worldwide. If this idea works they could have the vaccine ready for emergency situations by early 2021. Widespread distribution would be later.
There are other options out there but they are more difficult to be mass produced, don't so much offer protection but are more geared to induce an immune response once you have the virus. If the J&J option is unsuccessful we are likely going to have to deal with this problem longer unless someone else comes up with a new approach.

OSUBucks wrote:I don't see Trump eager to bail out what he has called poorly run (Democrat) states.

Certainly, in the case of Illinois, he's not wrong.

Iowa is opening up county by county, so to speak. Ours is considered a county that can slowly start re-opening as of Friday. Two examples of slowly reopening are gyms and restaurants can reopen with "50% capacity." At least two restaurants in our town have already announced they will hold off until at least the 12th to see how things stand then and then the YMCA in town is holding off until at least the 4th.

Our graduation has been scheduled for June 27th, our superintendent announced this morning. Pending social distancing regulations at that time, of course.

wolverine55 wrote:Iowa is opening up county by county, so to speak.  Ours is considered a county that can slowly start re-opening as of Friday.  Two examples of slowly reopening are gyms and restaurants can reopen with "50% capacity."  At least two restaurants in our town have already announced they will hold off until at least the 12th to see how things stand then and then the YMCA in town is holding off until at least the 4th.

I think that sounds like the right way to do this.

BirdWatcher wrote:And the bigger question, what will the deep state come up with in 2024 when Trump runs for his third term?  

I think our top plan right now is for an actual nuclear war, not a threat....the real thing.

Other plans have promise, but that is currently at the top of the list.

I saw this argument presented on social media yesterday... there have been 17 million people file unemployment and 54,843 deaths as of 10:45 am this morning. At what point do the job losses and the negative economic impact on millions of people outweigh the thousands of lives being saved? If we lose one job for one life, I do not think anybody would cry foul at the ratio of 1:1 but with a ratio of 1:309, I can understand why people are beginning to get frustrated.

Some questions I wish the government would/could answer, maybe you guys can help:
1. How many of the positive results are in nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and developmental homes?
2. What percent of individuals had underlying conditions and COVID 19 played a role in the death? (I saw a report that this number is 99.2% which I am not too sure I believe)
3. What is the accuracy of the tests that are being used? What is the +/-? All tests have flaws and there is a possibility for false positives and false negatives?
4. I know with more testing you will see more positives, but why are we still seeing large daily increases with this social distancing? If the incubation period is 14 days, why are we seeing increases after 5+ weeks?

Like many people, I am growing very frustrated with the whole situation, at times I understand it and at others, it does not make a whole lot of sense. My wife is expecting in September and yesterday she was told that if I am in the room or anywhere in the hospital, I will have to self-quarantine for 14 days, and we cannot be around my 3-year old son for 14-21 days, and neither can she. We are starting to brainstorm exactly how we can take care of him during this time.

There are 14 different test kits out there for the Coronavirus antibody. Eleven of them are unacceptably inaccurate. Even the 3 best ones have a very small percentage of false positives. I heard our Governor say this morning that we need a lot more testing before opening up but he didn't say anything about the inaccuracy of the current testing kits.
Last week I saw that the Coronavirus had killed over 10,000 residents in nursing homes so it's looking like nursing homes account for approximately 20% of fatalities nationwide. Over half of the fatalities are from those over 75.
In September I would expect there to be very little activity from the virus. It doesn't make much sense to me that hospital personnel would give you those instructions, especially this far out. I hope that when all our neighboring states open up Illinois still isn't dragging their feet on opening up. As far as politics go Trump will lose Illinois regardless of what the Governor does.