Coronavirus I

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:Are 299,000 deaths considerably less lethal than 300,000 deaths?


https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu

That article is almost 2 weeks old. A lot has changed since March 14th.

Is this much more like the flu than it was two weeks ago? Or does it seem worse than it did two weeks ago?

Two weeks ago, it sounded like it was going to be way worse than a typical seasonal flu. Now, I don't think it will be.

In Illinois......
March 13th 46 cases / 0 Deaths

March 20th 585 cases / 5 deaths

March 27th 3026 cases / 34 deaths

are we at the apex yet???

2ish people a day on average are shot and killed in Chicago.

Just some stats.

Head Idiot wrote:2ish people a day on average are shot and killed in Chicago.

Just some stats.

I don't live in Chicago and neither does my mother or mother -in -law who are both immunocompromised ...haven't seen either one in 3 weeks. Can't take the chance especially with me being an "essential employee" and working in a human petri dish with 700 other employees. Do everything I can possible to avoid contact and clean myself and belongings but just not worth the chance of me carrying it to either one of them even if I could have it and not even be aware of it....or find out too late that I have it.

I'm just thankful for modern technology and get the opportunity to see and talk to them.

4a(6afornet)north wrote:

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:Are 299,000 deaths considerably less lethal than 300,000 deaths?


https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu

That article is almost 2 weeks old. A lot has changed since March 14th.

Is this much more like the flu than it was two weeks ago? Or does it seem worse than it did two weeks ago?

Two weeks ago, it sounded like it was going to be way worse than a typical seasonal flu. Now, I don't think it will be.

In Illinois......
March 13th 46 cases / 0 Deaths

March 20th 585 cases / 5 deaths

March 27th 3026 cases / 34 deaths

are we at the apex yet???

No, we've gotten off pretty easy so far in Central Illinois. I think that's about to change and these next few weeks are going to get a lot worse.

OSUBucks wrote:

4a(6afornet)north wrote:

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:

19delta wrote:

Teetime wrote:Are 299,000 deaths considerably less lethal than 300,000 deaths?


https://www.propublica.org/article/this-coronavirus-is-unlike-anything-in-our-lifetime-and-we-have-to-stop-comparing-it-to-the-flu

That article is almost 2 weeks old. A lot has changed since March 14th.

Is this much more like the flu than it was two weeks ago? Or does it seem worse than it did two weeks ago?

Two weeks ago, it sounded like it was going to be way worse than a typical seasonal flu. Now, I don't think it will be.

In Illinois......
March 13th 46 cases / 0 Deaths

March 20th 585 cases / 5 deaths

March 27th 3026 cases / 34 deaths

are we at the apex yet???

No, we've gotten off pretty easy so far in Central Illinois. I think that's about to change and these next few weeks are going to get a lot worse.

Yes, Kankakee County had 3 cases on Tuesday, have 21 on Friday

Head Idiot wrote:2ish people a day on average are shot and killed in Chicago.

Just some stats.

there's a "vaccine" for shooting and killing people (and the common flu for that matter).  there's not one for covid19

We have zero cases in my county, but our restaurants/bar are closed anyway. Ventured into Walmart today to get coffee and dog food. Jammed! A friend said the highways around Knoxville were also jammed full of people. He calls on bakeries and buys their spoils for animal feed. He said all his customers (bakeries) were adding shifts and/or employees. There seems to be alot of commerce going on, pre-stimulus check.... Amazon hiring 100k, Walmart adding jobs, Lowe's adding jobs....

To be honest, if my pub wasn't shut down and I didn't read online, I wouldn't know there was a crisis.

2 Amazon facilities in this area had employees test positive....all workers who came in contact are now off 14 days. At my job we lost 23 people in my department alone this week out of 87 due to the fact they lost their childcare. Used to have all in cafeteria for lunch and they now have us spread out into conference rooms and classrooms pretty much sitting at individual tables by ourselves.
We are constantly handing off product into totes and bins to other employees for orders we are receiving so if we get an employee that shows positive it pretty much will decimate our department because we will self quarantine.

Just saw this from the New England Journal of Medicine that was published 3 days ago. One of the authors is Dr. Fauci:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

Here's the most relevant part:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

need to stop fixating on mortality rate...while being important it's the number people that will be affected that will need hospitalization. They are not bringing naval hospital ships in and converting McCormick place into a 3000 bed hospital for shits and giggles.They are afraid of our medical facilities being overwhelmed and not having enough beds for the patients that need to be hospitalized.
For example here in Grundy County we have Morris Hospital which has 89 beds and of those 10 are ICU rooms.....this for a county of over 51000 residents. Asking people to stay home to try to "flatten the curve" is what medical facilities are asking for.

There is so much we learn everyday about this....look at Louisiana....fastest growth anywhere in the world.....we'll get through this even if we have to adjust our lives for a little while.

19delta wrote:Just saw this from the New England Journal of Medicine that was published 3 days ago. One of the authors is Dr. Fauci:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

Here's the most relevant part:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

This was the footnote on this publication

“This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.“

That was a month ago. Much has happened over that month.

Teetime wrote:

19delta wrote:Just saw this from the New England Journal of Medicine that was published 3 days ago. One of the authors is Dr. Fauci:

Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted

Here's the most relevant part:

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

This was the footnote on this publication

“This editorial was published on February 28, 2020, at NEJM.org.“

That was a month ago. Much has happened over that month.

Touche.

+1

i find it interesting to read this thread again from the start.

ging wrote:i find it interesting to read this thread again from the start.

Me too.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

"The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario."

(for those who believe nbc news and trump's coronavirus coordinator)

ging wrote:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

"The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario."

(for those who believe nbc news and trump's coronavirus coordinator)

Well Dr Fauci said the same thing too. The surge is expected to hit Springfield next week. April is going to be a bad month for this country. Those numbers were given as a best case scenario but not everyone is doing what they are supposed to. There is a cruise ship with a lot of sick people who want to dock in Florida. Who are all these dumbasses who thought going on a cruise at this time was a good idea? The Florida Governor doesn't want them to dock in his state. Not that he's done a good job managing this. He didn't invoke a stay at home order for South Florida until today.

ging wrote:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

"The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario."

(for those who believe nbc news and trump's coronavirus coordinator)

Not trying to debate the predictions, but how many of those people would die in that time period anyway? This disease seems to be taking out those with some pretty serious issues already as its' main targets.

For example- my wife's grandma. She has serious kidney issues, has been on dialysis for years and mentally checked out a couple years ago. Without this disease it wouldn't be shocking at all if she died in the next week to 6 months. Now, if she gets this, she'll be thrown in those numbers.

This thing is gonna get way worse for all in our population, before it starts to get better. Just my opinion.

Head Idiot” wrote:Not trying to debate the predictions, but how many of those people would die in that time period anyway? This disease seems to be taking out those with some pretty serious issues already as its' main targets.

For example- my wife's grandma. She has serious kidney issues, has been on dialysis for years and mentally checked out a couple years ago. Without this disease it wouldn't be shocking at all if she died in the next week to 6 months. Now, if she gets this, she'll be thrown in those numbers.

Well I hope your wife’s Grandma lives many more years.

You know....I never noticed before, you just hate being wrong, don’t you?

Teetime wrote:

Head Idiot” wrote:Not trying to debate the predictions, but how many of those people would die in that time period anyway? This disease seems to be taking out those with some pretty serious issues already as its' main targets.

For example- my wife's grandma. She has serious kidney issues, has been on dialysis for years and mentally checked out a couple years ago. Without this disease it wouldn't be shocking at all if she died in the next week to 6 months. Now, if she gets this, she'll be thrown in those numbers.

Well I hope your wife’s Grandma lives many more years.

You know....I never noticed before, you just hate being wrong, don’t you?

I don't think 10 years from now I'll be wrong.

And my wife's grandma doesn't want to live many more years. She's already turning down various treatments. At some point, it's time to go. Her husband passed about 10 years ago and she's been pretty miserable since. My grandma was the same way. At one point I went to visit my grandma and asked her what she was doing that day. Her response was "Just waiting to die". She was 96.

Despite how much the living want them to stay, you gotta respect their desire to not. I think that's a real problem we have in this country. This isn't about what we want. We spend so much time wrapped up in what someone's death will mean to us, we don't pause to think that a lot of times, the elderly just want it to be over.

On other news, the Department of Corrections is certainly running scared of the Rona. We've released 100 prisoners in the past 11 days from our facility, with potentially another 100 leaving in the next 1-2 weeks.

I would imagine that if safety was a concern, being inside would be safer since you can control what comes in, but what do I know?

I don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as some of the wild predications that were being made a couple weeks ago (1,000,000+ dead) but allow it may end up being worse than the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Head Idiot wrote:

Teetime wrote:

Head Idiot” wrote:Not trying to debate the predictions, but how many of those people would die in that time period anyway? This disease seems to be taking out those with some pretty serious issues already as its' main targets.

For example- my wife's grandma. She has serious kidney issues, has been on dialysis for years and mentally checked out a couple years ago. Without this disease it wouldn't be shocking at all if she died in the next week to 6 months. Now, if she gets this, she'll be thrown in those numbers.

Well I hope your wife’s Grandma lives many more years.

You know....I never noticed before, you just hate being wrong, don’t you?

I don't think 10 years from now I'll be wrong.

And my wife's grandma doesn't want to live many more years. She's already turning down various treatments. At some point, it's time to go. Her husband passed about 10 years ago and she's been pretty miserable since. My grandma was the same way. At one point I went to visit my grandma and asked her what she was doing that day. Her response was "Just waiting to die". She was 96.

Despite how much the living want them to stay, you gotta respect their desire to not. I think that's a real problem we have in this country. This isn't about what we want. We spend so much time wrapped up in what someone's death will mean to us, we don't pause to think that a lot of times, the elderly just want it to be over.

Well said coach.

The Herald and Review is really reaching for content-

https://herald-review.com/sports/high-school/football/watch-maroa-forsyth-running-backs-cade-culp-and-bryson-boes-push-a-truck-to-stay/article_2758d9c8-f11c-50b1-b219-ec40d93d39dc.html