Re: Coronavirus I

by 19delta Wed May 20, 2020 8:31 pm

ramblinman wrote:
19delta wrote:

Huh?

If the number of positive cases has only gone up a little but the number of tests has gone up a lot, that means we are getting ahead of it.

And if there truly are these millions of untested but infected people, where are they? They certainly aren't being admitted to hospitals. Are there secret mass graves somewhere?

Really? You don't get it? I'll try to type slowly here.

We don't really know if we are getting ahead of it or not when the number of tests vary as much as they do and when the number of tests being performed is so low relative to the total population. Everyone is touting the positivity rate, which I feel is a crock of crap. Here is why: If you test 50,000 people in one day and you have a positivity rate of 10%, that's 5,000 daily confirmed cases, but at least the positivity rate went down, right? This might seem a bit off the charts in terms of relativity to the current situation....but is it really?

Last week, we had a day with, by far, the most daily tests (29,266) and daily confirmed cases (4,014). Do the math. You think 29,266 is a lot of daily tests? Not too far down the road, I think we will look back at 29,000 daily tests and chuckle that we thought that was a lot. More tests will be more confirmed cases. Millions more.

Where are the millions of untested and infected people? Everywhere. First of all, many of them have had the virus and have survived, your secret mass graves wisecrack notwithstanding. Secondly, there are already 1.6 million confirmed cases in this country. There are people on this board who think they or there family members had it. Public health officials are pretty much in agreement that there are many untested actual cases of the virus out there. I have read that the actual number of cases could be between 10 and 20 times the number of confirmed cases.

The millions who are infected and contagious and untested are at your local Casey's. They are on public buses. They are in tattoo parlors and bowling alleys in Georgia. They are anywhere they want to be in Wisconsin. In August, if many of you have your way, they will be lining up inches away from each other across a line of scrimmage. They will be gathering thisclose to each other in a huddle. In just 11 days, they will be gathering in groups of up to ten anywhere they want in our state.

The more we open up, the more chances you will be exposed to them. You can have this virus and be decades away from a grave, secret mass or otherwise. You can feel completely fine, and still be contagious. That's the reason you should be wearing a mask when out in public interacting with others, so you mitigate the risk of infecting them.

Millions have been exposed already. If people are getting infected, they are not getting so sick that hospitals are being overwhelmed. That's what is important.

There is a pretty clear profile of people who should be most concerned about being exposed. Those people should take the precautions necessary and government should provide those people with whatever services they need. And when we get a vaccine, they should go to the front of the line.

For the rest of us, the socioeconomic damage done already is a sunk cost that has ruined the lives of far more people than the virus has. But, the prospective costs of continuing the shutdowns will be exponentially worse.

by 19delta Wed May 20, 2020 8:36 pm

OSUBucks wrote:
dusty7 wrote:If you look at 7 day averages, which are a much better measurement than day to day numbers, have flat lined for about 16 days, this according to USA Today.

Overall numbers are starting to trend down across the state and our health care system is no where, nor has it been, overwhelmed by this virus. That is attributed to the stay at home order, which did have a positive impact, but states that have relaxed those ordera still have not seen a sharp increase in numbers.

This will never go away and there are some proven therapies that are working for the most severe of cases. A positive test is definitely not a death sentence for a majority of the population, but those who are vulnerable need to keep their guard up.

This is correct. When things open up if I had a preexisting condition and was considered high risk I would not be going to a restaurant, even eating outside. If I was Pritzker I may not open up Region 1 (Cook County) on the 29th but I'd open up every where else. The quarantine units in the two Springfield hospitals are mostly empty. We've had very little death here in our County with the exception of one nursing home that didn't follow the proper protocols. I agree with RM in that when going out have your mask on. A week or two ago we were having some days with between 3000-4000 new cases so we are flattening out and most of the new cases and fatalities continue to be in the NE corner of the state. I hear some folks saying that when a vaccine is available they aren't getting it. When vaccines are available get vaccinated.
If we end up with around 140,000 fatalities when this is over that would be about 0.0004% of our population. Not anything like the Black Death in 14th century Europe when about a third of the population was killed. If we had done a better job protecting our elderly in nursing homes it would have even been a lot less.

So what you are saying is that we won't need to be digging mass graves or burning the corpses of the dead in massive funeral pyres?

Laughing

by dusty7 Wed May 20, 2020 9:22 pm

In the continuing Illinois and Wisconsin saga

5/20 Numbers: (Change Using 5/15 as a Base)
Illinois:
Total New Cases - 2388 (-44)
Total New Deaths - 146 (+16)
Positivity Rate -2,388/21,029 - 11.35% (+2.20%)
New Infection Per Capita -2,388/12,500,000 - .019% (-.002%)
New Infection 7 Day Average - 2,246 (-496)
1,005 of 3,461 ICU Beds In Use- 29.04% (-1.46%)
554 of 5,383 Vents in Use - 10.29% (-2.86%)

Wisconsin:
Total New Cases - 528 (+118)
Total New Deaths - 14 (+3)
Positivity Rate - 528/6,063 - 8.70% (+1.93%)
New Infection Per Capita - 528/5,822,200 - .0009% (+.0002%)
New Infection 7 Day Average - 359 (+60)
129 of 1,395 ICU Bed in Use - 9.25% (-.76%)
284 of 1263 Vents in Use - 22.49% (-3.38%)

After 5 days, there is not really a significant change on either side. Wisconsin has had more positive cases recently but also with an increase in testing as well. Neither state seems to have an issue for ICU and Vent bed availability.

USA TOday Article on Wisconsin Opening Up

by 19delta Wed May 20, 2020 9:40 pm

dusty7 wrote:In the continuing Illinois and Wisconsin saga

5/20 Numbers: (Change Using 5/15 as a Base)
Illinois:
Total New Cases - 2388 (-44)
Total New Deaths - 146 (+16)
Positivity Rate -2,388/21,029 - 11.35% (+2.20%)
New Infection Per Capita -2,388/12,500,000 - .019% (-.002%)
New Infection 7 Day Average - 2,246 (-496)
1,005 of 3,461 ICU Beds In Use- 29.04% (-1.46%)
554 of 5,383 Vents in Use - 10.29% (-2.86%)

Wisconsin:
Total New Cases - 528 (+118)
Total New Deaths - 14 (+3)
Positivity Rate - 528/6,063 - 8.70% (+1.93%)
New Infection Per Capita - 528/5,822,200 - .0009% (+.0002%)
New Infection 7 Day Average - 359 (+60)
129 of 1,395 ICU Bed in Use - 9.25% (-.76%)
284 of 1263 Vents in Use - 22.49% (-3.38%)

After 5 days, there is not really a significant change on either side. Wisconsin has had more positive cases recently but also with an increase in testing as well. Neither state seems to have an issue for ICU and Vent bed availability.

USA TOday Article on Wisconsin Opening Up

dusty...how many mass graves in each state?

by ramblinman Thu May 21, 2020 8:59 am

19delta wrote:dusty...how many mass graves in each state?

How should he know? They're a secret, remember?

by ramblinman Thu May 21, 2020 9:25 am

dusty7 wrote:If you look at 7 day averages, which are a much better measurement than day to day numbers, have flat lined for about 16 days, this according to USA Today.

In Illinois? If you look at Illinois numbers of new cases and deaths, we have had our two highest daily confirmed cases count in the past nine days. In the past eight days, we have had four of the top five daily death counts. You call that flatlining?

dusty7 wrote:Overall numbers are starting to trend down across the state and our health care system is no where, nor has it been, overwhelmed by this virus. That is attributed to the stay at home order, which did have a positive impact, but states that have relaxed those orders still have not seen a sharp increase in numbers.

I think it is too early to make that call definitively.

dusty7 wrote:This will never go away and there are some proven therapies that are working for the most severe of cases.

Clorox? Hydroxycholorquine? Mr. Clean?

People want this thing to be over, but it is far from that. We shut things down after the beginning of this thing and, you're right, it did have an impact. Now we are starting to reopen and we are either at the peak or just a little bit beyond it. We are certainly way higher on the curve than we were when we shut things down. WAY higher.

Makes zero sense. We are setting ourselves up for another major curve. Mark my words. See the multiple deaths per 1,000 curves below for the Spanish Flu.

You guys can keep ignoring the public health experts all you want. If you ask me, ignoring their warnings is what got us into this big of a mess in the first place. We are about to make the same mistake twice.

Coronavirus I - Page 40 1918_spanish_flu_waves

Coronavirus I - Page 40 1918_spanish_flu_waves

by Teetime Thu May 21, 2020 10:12 am

Teetime wrote:
OSUBucks wrote: BTW, Ohio, which has a population similar to Illinois has 1724 deaths, Illinois has 4379.

That seems unusual also, really a mathematical anomaly you might say.

What do you attribute that difference to? Honestly....I want to know.

Anyone want to take a guess why?

by ramblinman Thu May 21, 2020 10:31 am

Teetime wrote:
Teetime wrote:
OSUBucks wrote: BTW, Ohio, which has a population similar to Illinois has 1724 deaths, Illinois has 4379.

That seems unusual also, really a mathematical anomaly you might say.

What do you attribute that difference to? Honestly....I want to know.

Anyone want to take a guess why?

I suspect it isn't any single reason. Here a few possible ones:

-- Ohio has no subways, and little mass transit rail in general relative to Illinois
-- Ohio has far fewer nonstop flights between cities in that state and countries like China, S. Korea, Italy, and other virus hot spots in European countries than does Illinois
-- Ohio has a GOP governor Wink

by 19delta Thu May 21, 2020 11:06 am

ramblinman wrote:
19delta wrote:dusty...how many mass graves in each state?

How should he know? They're a secret, remember?

Indeed.

by OSUBucks Thu May 21, 2020 11:15 am

Teetime wrote:
Teetime wrote:
OSUBucks wrote: BTW, Ohio, which has a population similar to Illinois has 1724 deaths, Illinois has 4379.

That seems unusual also, really a mathematical anomaly you might say.

What do you attribute that difference to? Honestly....I want to know.

Anyone want to take a guess why?

Illinois and Ohio both declared a state of emergency on the same day, March 9. Ohio immediately invoked a mandatory quarantine restricting out of state travels, Illinois never did. Governor Dewine has done a good job handling the pandemic. Honestly JBP has done a decent job too IMO. Maybe in general Ohio folks were more disciplined in following orders. I don't know if they had the large block parties that have been reported in Chicago. Really other than the mandatory quarantine anything else is probably speculation.

by 19delta Thu May 21, 2020 11:39 am

ramblinman wrote:

People want this thing to be over, but it is far from that. We shut things down after the beginning of this thing and, you're right, it did have an impact. Now we are starting to reopen and we are either at the peak or just a little bit beyond it. We are certainly way higher on the curve than we were when we shut things down. WAY higher.

Makes zero sense. We are setting ourselves up for another major curve. Mark my words. See the multiple deaths per 1,000 curves below for the Spanish Flu.

You guys can keep ignoring the public health experts all you want. If you ask me, ignoring their warnings is what got us into this big of a mess in the first place. We are about to make the same mistake twice.

I'm not ignoring the public health experts at all. And I agree with you that, until there is a vaccine or herd immunity, the virus is not going to magically disappear. And there are going to be additional outbreaks as society slowly returns to normal. None of that is really in question.

Dozens of pages back, I said that the only way the shutdowns were going to work and have broad public acceptance was if government, on every level, could guarantee that not a single American would lose their job, business, property, or savings as a result. And that clearly did not happen. People were expected to comply with shut-down rules that guaranteed the destruction of their personal finances and the loss of their property.

Have lives been saved by the shutdowns? Has the spread of the virus been slowed? Absolutely. 100%. But, at what cost? What is the math? How many lives saved or infections stopped is worth the socioeconomic apocalypse that has been visited upon small business owners, single parents, poor people and minorities, and other vulnerable groups?

You claim to be an advocate of public health and safety. If so, you show a shocking lack of empathy for the people in these groups I have listed. Why don't you care about them? What you are advocating may possibly keep some of them from getting the virus but will assuredly leave them crushed and impoverished.

by 19delta Thu May 21, 2020 11:50 am

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:If you look at 7 day averages, which are a much better measurement than day to day numbers, have flat lined for about 16 days, this according to USA Today.

In Illinois? If you look at Illinois numbers of new cases and deaths, we have had our two highest daily confirmed cases count in the past nine days. In the past eight days, we have had four of the top five daily death counts. You call that flatlining?

If I test 5 kids on the bench press and 3 of them bench press over 200lbs, that's really good.

If I test 20 kids on the bench press a month later and 4 of them bench press 200lbs, that's not so good.

by 19delta Thu May 21, 2020 11:58 am

Also, the release of backlogged testing results also skews the numbers:
https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/20/pasadena-reports-80-new-coronavirus-cases-as-testing-backlog-clears/

by Head Idiot Thu May 21, 2020 1:01 pm

2 things-
1. Jebus Christ
2. I'm glad I'm not coaching anymore.

https://www.news-gazette.com/coronavirus/when-will-green-flag-drop-for-high-school-sports/article_4130e9ec-9a2c-11ea-82b3-5b1f93d8a5af.html#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

by ramblinman Thu May 21, 2020 1:29 pm

19delta wrote:I'm not ignoring the public health experts at all. And I agree with you that, until there is a vaccine or herd immunity, the virus is not going to magically disappear. And there are going to be additional outbreaks as society slowly returns to normal. None of that is really in question.

Dozens of pages back, I said that the only way the shutdowns were going to work and have broad public acceptance was if government, on every level, could guarantee that not a single American would lose their job, business, property, or savings as a result. And that clearly did not happen. People were expected to comply with shut-down rules that guaranteed the destruction of their personal finances and the loss of their property.

Have lives been saved by the shutdowns? Has the spread of the virus been slowed? Absolutely. 100%. But, at what cost? What is the math? How many lives saved or infections stopped is worth the socioeconomic apocalypse that has been visited upon small business owners, single parents, poor people and minorities, and other vulnerable groups?

You claim to be an advocate of public health and safety. If so, you show a shocking lack of empathy for the people in these groups I have listed. Why don't you care about them? What you are advocating may possibly keep some of them from getting the virus but will assuredly leave them crushed and impoverished.

Good to know you aren't ignoring the public health experts. You're just disagreeing with them, because they are pretty much all saying to go slow or to extend the restrictions, and that flies in the face of how you feel we need to go out and cultivate our turnips.

I fully acknowledge that people are hurting because of the economy, and I do have empathy for them. I do care about them. I am actually advocating FOR them when I say we need more time to stay under restrictions so that we don't have to repeat them and prolong the hurt of those who have already been hurt and to avoid putting even more people out of work. By opening up before we are well into the down slope of the curve, by causing a second even steeper curve, I believe that will wind up hurting even more of the people in the groups you listed.

Only time will tell. You and your ilk are getting your way now. Hope you are right and I am wrong.

by OSUBucks Thu May 21, 2020 2:02 pm

Illinois is considering borrowing 4.5 billion from the Federal Reserve. They are hoping to be able to pay it back quickly if Congress will come thru with a Federal aid package soon. The actual budget gap for the coming fiscal year is between $6-7 billion. The unemployment rate for April was 16.4%.
The state hasn't even been closed down for 3 months yet and this is the damage we're looking at.
Can you imagine what we'd be looking at if we continue the shutdown thru the Summer? When you get down to it this is why even left leaning states like Illinois, NY and California are opening things up. They feel that they are going to have to roll with the possibility of another spike in casualties because we've got to let people get back to work again.

-------

https://turk190.aforumfree.com/viewtopic.php?t=5623

by ging Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:11 pm

ging wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:
When this is all said and done I think the casualties will be about 1/10 of that of influenza if that. This expert said it would be a lot worse.

as with all things, time will tell. and i hope you're right! but, will that be due to chance or because we were proactive and took extreme measures to prevent the spread of the virus?

without checking the numbers, i assume covid19 casualties are much higher than influenza casualties this year.

by ging Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:13 pm

back in late March:

ging wrote:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dr-deborah-birx-predicts-200-000-deaths-if-we-do-n1171876

"The White House coronavirus response coordinator said Monday that she is "very worried about every city in the United States" and projects 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths as a best case scenario."

(for those who believe nbc news and trump's coronavirus coordinator)

seems pretty accurate to me

by Teetime Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:48 am

Are you out of quarantine now, ging?

Glad it didn’t turn out to be the disease and I hope the time at home was not too hard on you and your family.

by ging Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:55 am

Teetime wrote:Are you out of quarantine now, ging?

Glad it didn’t turn out to be the disease and I hope the time at home was not too hard on you and your family.

thanks tee. last day is today. everyone is fine.

by Teetime Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:59 am

ging wrote:
ging wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:
When this is all said and done I think the casualties will be about 1/10 of that of influenza if that. This expert said it would be a lot worse.

as with all things, time will tell. and i hope you're right! but, will that be due to chance or because we were proactive and took extreme measures to prevent the spread of the virus?

without checking the numbers, i assume covid19 casualties are much higher than influenza casualties this year.

The CDC says that the nine flu seasons before 2019-20 averaged 37,462 deaths in the US from the flu. Worldwide the average is about 470,000 per year over that time period. The US usually has about 8% of all flu deaths (before Covid-19) each year. This, in spite of the fact that we have the best medical facilities and a high percentage of doctors to population (maybe the highest) and only about 4.6% of the world's population.

With Covid-19 the United States is over 25% of all cases and all deaths, with 4.6% of the population and all of the best medical facilities. Deaths in the US over 130,000 now, so rather than 10% of the typical flu season it now is 350% of a typical flu season and headed up.

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