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Post by dusty7 on Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:22 am

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:
So you are suggesting that the sole reason for these reasons having higher positivity is in-person learning?.  Find me statistics that show in person learning is the sole difference accounting for about a  2% difference in regions.

I suggested no such thing. What you are doing right there is a classic straw man argument.

So schools opening aren't the reason for increased positivity outside of Chicago?

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/schools-arent-superspreaders/616669/
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Post by ramblinman on Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:52 am

dusty7 wrote:
ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:
So you are suggesting that the sole reason for these reasons having higher positivity is in-person learning?.  Find me statistics that show in person learning is the sole difference accounting for about a  2% difference in regions.

I suggested no such thing.  What you are doing right there is a classic straw man argument.

So schools opening aren't the reason for increased positivity outside of Chicago?

I think that there are a number of contributing factors as to why Chicago is experiencing lower positivity than most other regions of the state. Distance learning in Chicago public schools for the past month has to be considered as one of those factors, especially when you consider the much larger data set and population density that are unique to Chicago relative to these other areas.

I think another factor is the prevalence of mask wearing. I walk down the street in downtown Chicago and easily 7 or 8 out of every 10 people are wearing masks...outdoors...and in every single public indoor space without exception. I realize that many folks who live in the wide open spaces or in regions with far more chickens per square mile than people find mask wearing in seemingly unnecessary places worthy of derision or snarky memes, but the positivity numbers in Chicago speak for themselves.

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Post by ramblinman on Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:31 pm

Head Idiot wrote:Sweden seems to be an example of it (herd immunity) existing.

"In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries. Although it did not have a complete lockdown, as Kucharski pointed out to me, Sweden imposed a 50-person limit on indoor gatherings in March, and did not remove the cap even as many other European countries eased such restrictions after beating back the first wave. (Many are once again restricting gathering sizes after seeing a resurgence.) Plus, the country has a small household size and fewer multigenerational households compared with most of Europe, which further limits transmission and cluster possibilities. It kept schools fully open without distancing or masks, but only for children under 16, who are unlikely to be super-spreaders of this disease. Both transmission and illness risks go up with age, and Sweden went all online for higher-risk high-school and university students—the opposite of what we did in the United States. It also encouraged social-distancing, and closed down indoor places that failed to observe the rules. From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict. It simply doesn’t deserve this oversize place in our debates assessing different strategies."

The above from the following article: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
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Post by Head Idiot on Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:23 pm

From your quote-
It kept schools fully open without distancing or masks, but only for children under 16, who are unlikely to be super-spreaders of this disease.
So, shutting schools down is unnecessary. Thanks for sinking yourself.
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Post by ramblinman on Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:43 am

Head Idiot wrote:From your quote-
 It kept schools fully open without distancing or masks, but only for children under 16, who are unlikely to be super-spreaders of this disease.  
So, shutting schools down is unnecessary. Thanks for sinking yourself.

Show me in this recent discussion where I said that shutting schools down is necessary.  Don't bother looking, because you won't find anything.   I have changed my position regarding schools being closed.  I'm in favor of keeping schools open if they take appropriate precautions.  

If Sweden's goal was rapid herd immunity, then it would make sense to keep ALL schools open...except they only kept them open for kids under 16.  So, why keep the more infectious older kids out of school if their goal is herd immunity?  One policy seems to be at odds with the other.


Last edited by ramblinman on Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by net on Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:46 am

Head Idiot wrote:One potential reason Chicago has a low positive rate vs downstate areas is they got hit with it really hard in the spring while those areas didn't. Maybe Chicago has a bit of herd immunity whereas these areas are just now seeing it?

don't know about herd immunity here in cass. we've had 3 people positive, recover and get it again.
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Post by OSUBucks on Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:42 pm

For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.
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Post by dusty7 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:32 pm

OSUBucks wrote:For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.

Hospitalizations are still flat as are weekly deaths as well.

At least we won't be locking down again.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/11/covid-hospitalizations-up-11-state-records-who-questions-lockdowns/5960078002/
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Post by dusty7 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:33 pm

OSUBucks wrote:For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.

Hospitalizations are still flat as are weekly deaths as well.

At least we won't be locking down again.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/11/covid-hospitalizations-up-11-state-records-who-questions-lockdowns/5960078002/
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Post by Head Idiot on Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:40 pm

Why in the \"f\"ing does anyone give \"f\"ing what Bill Gates thinks?
Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft and benefactor of the Gates Foundation, warns that the nation must be ready for "lots of additional deaths" if COVID-19 testing does not improve.

"Testing results don't come back within 24 hours (and) we reimburse for these worthless things," Gates said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "We are running the worst testing system, in terms of who gets access to it, of any country."  
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Post by ramblinman on Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:56 pm

OSUBucks wrote:For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.

The seven-day rolling average for new confirmed cases reached 2,643 today in Illinois. The previous high was 2,565, set on May 7. Back in early May, I was arguing that positivity rates going down were not all that important of a metric for me because the more tests that are done, the better the positivity rates look. So, here we are, five months later, and the number of new daily cases are at the exact same levels as they were back then.

But, hey, look at our positivity rates, right? They're much better than they were! Rolling Eyes
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Post by ramblinman on Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:14 pm

dusty7 wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.

Hospitalizations are still flat as are weekly deaths as well.  

At least we won't be locking down again.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/11/covid-hospitalizations-up-11-state-records-who-questions-lockdowns/5960078002/

Do you see what you did there? You claimed that hospitalizations are "still flat" when the headline of the article you linked to says that hospitalizations are up.

Hospitalizations are not flat. They were flat for around a three week period in Sept and into the first few days of Oct. Since then, they have been on the rise, and are now up to 35,056 hospitalized patients with COVID as of today's date. That is the highest daily number since Sept. 6.

source: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized
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Post by Head Idiot on Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:37 pm

From the WHO president or whatever his title is-
 He also claimed that the only thing lockdowns achieved was poverty – with no mention of the potential lives saved.

“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.
So, is he going to be "responsible for murder" like Trump? I doubt it.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/11/who-warns-against-covid-19-lockdowns-due-to-economic-damage/
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Post by dusty7 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:21 pm

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:
OSUBucks wrote:For Monday October 12 statewide positivity is 4.3%. We are moving in the wrong direction.

Hospitalizations are still flat as are weekly deaths as well.  

At least we won't be locking down again.  

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/11/covid-hospitalizations-up-11-state-records-who-questions-lockdowns/5960078002/

Do you see what you did there? You claimed that hospitalizations are "still flat" when the headline of the article you linked to says that hospitalizations are up.

Hospitalizations are not flat. They were flat for around a three week period in Sept and into the first few days of Oct. Since then, they have been on the rise, and are now up to 35,056 hospitalized patients with COVID as of today's date. That is the highest daily number since Sept. 6.

source: https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

Yes I saw that, I guess I should have clarified, in Illinois they are flat. The whole hospitalization stat is bogus anyway because it does not differentiate between because of COVID or with COVID. Both are very different situations and should not be treated as the same fear mongering statistic.

A quality non-biased video from CNBC. Doctor states increase in incidental and asymptomatic cases, treatments Trump took are effective, and disease has mutated to being more contagious but less lethal.

https://youtu.be/HRpMVHaRvaY
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Post by Teetime on Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:48 pm

Did we lose 40 pages or so of this thread?


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Donald J. Trump, he is my President now........sad!
"COVID under control. economy rebounding, inner-city Democrats rioting = Trump in a landslide.....(BW 6/29/2020)
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Post by dusty7 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:40 pm

Not looking good for a vaccine. This is the 2nd study that was halted due to a neurological illness. The focus needs to remain on continuing to develop effective treatments and to make those treatments available to everyone.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/12/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-trial-paused-unexplained-illness/5975253002/
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Post by lefty120 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:45 am

A couple intersting things I came across this weekend.

1.  On Face The Nation Sunday morning, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, whom I've listed to often and find him to be very credible and very unbiased, said that indeed the therapeutics that President Trump took are effective.  He also then went on to state that in regards to the antibody cocktail he took, they knew it was effective back in May...and the federal government didn't want to fund it's production; thus now we only have about 300,000 doses, not nearly enough to even handle the front line workers.  He said many are imploring other drug manufacturers to begin producing it as well.  

2.  As I continue to hear people complain, because that's all it really is anymore, about Illinois fall sports not being played etc, it's interesting to look at maps of infection rates...every state around us is rising and rising somewhat quickly.  Illinois is the only one that isn't; at least right now.  Is this from fall sports or kids back in school?  I'm not smart enough to know that.  But it is something worth keeping an eye on.

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Post by tm on Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:27 am

It may or may not be the end of the world, but as a state, we aren't doing great either. We were 3.4% a week ago and 4.3% yesterday. Those numbers are being kept low by all the testing at U of I. There are some days that Uof I amounts to 20% of the states tests, and their 7 day is 0.8%. I'd guess the state, outside of UofI is 6%+.

Again, people will argue whether or not 6% is good or bad. The overall trend of it increasing is bothering though, especially as we reach a point in the calendar when more and more of everyone's social interactions will be indoors.
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Post by dusty7 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:06 am

Another change to consider is more selective testing. I know of several people who have been told after a close contact to not go get tested unless they are showing symptoms. This would result in higher positivity because only those who are sick are being tested. Again, another flawed statistic because a few months ago we were all told to go test and now testing has become more selective.

The increased indoor interactions is concerning but if you wear mask you should be fine right? I can say our attendance I school has been hovering around 95% which is much higher than previous years. Our nurse has said it could be because of the facemasks and increased cleaning. As long as we stay on this course and maintain cleaning protocols, why would we see a drastic increase?
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Post by ramblinman on Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:13 am

dusty7 wrote:
A quality non-biased video from CNBC.  Doctor states increase in incidental and asymptomatic cases, treatments Trump took are effective, and disease has mutated to being more contagious but less lethal.  

https://youtu.be/HRpMVHaRvaY

He isn't a doctor. He is the CEO of a single hospital (not a system) located in Teaneck NJ explaining what he is seeing in his hospital.
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Post by ramblinman on Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:23 am

dusty7 wrote:Yes I saw that, I guess I should have clarified, in Illinois they are flat.  The whole hospitalization stat is bogus anyway because it does not differentiate between because of COVID or with COVID. Both are very different situations and should not be treated as the same fear mongering statistic.  

If it is bogus, then why bother claiming they are flat?

Bogus or not, they aren't flat in Illinois, either.

Hospitalizations in Illinois are up 24% over where they were one month ago and up 5% over a week ago. Each of the last five days' worth of hospitalizations in Illinois are all higher than every single other day since June 19.

source: https://covidtracking.com/data/state/illinois/hospitalization
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Post by dusty7 on Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:34 am

ramblinman wrote:
dusty7 wrote:Yes I saw that, I guess I should have clarified, in Illinois they are flat.  The whole hospitalization stat is bogus anyway because it does not differentiate between because of COVID or with COVID. Both are very different situations and should not be treated as the same fear mongering statistic.  

If it is bogus, then why bother claiming they are flat?

Bogus or not, they aren't flat in Illinois, either.

Hospitalizations in Illinois are up 24% over where they were one month ago and up 5% over a week ago.  Each of the last five days' worth of hospitalizations in Illinois are all higher than every single other day since June 19.

source:  https://covidtracking.com/data/state/illinois/hospitalization


IDPH website shows different information on hospitalizations - https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/hospitalization-utilization

No sure who I would trust more, the State of Illinois or The Atlantic.
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Post by tm on Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:35 pm

Part of the IDPH website looking "flat" is the scale of how long of time its been tracking the numbers though. Early July, we had low 300's for ICU patients. It's been a 3 1/2 month very slow climb since then to upper 300's now. Does upper 300's mean we should continue or increase restrictions, I have no idea....

The deaths stat has been similar. 7-day average was 14 in mid-July, and stayed that way for about a month. Right now it's 27.
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Post by OSUBucks on Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:19 pm

For Tuesday October 13 statewide positivity is 4.5%. 1848 people in Illinois hospitalized with COVID19. That number was in the 1600's less than 2 weeks ago. Numbers are going up.
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Post by Head Idiot on Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:42 pm

 Face masks and coverings are not 100% effective at preventing the spread of the coronavirus, according to a September study from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The study, conducted in July, found that over 70% of the 154 "case-patients," who had tested positive for COVID-19, were infected despite making efforts to abide by CDC guidelines, including the wearing of face masks.
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